Global| Apr 28 2021Advance U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods Deepens to Record in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Foreign trade deficit increases as economy improves. • Exports and imports reversed earlier declines. The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record $90.59 billion during March from $87.07 billion in [...]
• Foreign trade deficit increases as economy improves.
• Exports and imports reversed earlier declines.
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record $90.59 billion during March from $87.07 billion in February. During Q1'21, the trade deficit averaged $87.34 billion versus $83.44 billion averaged in Q4'20. An $87.4 billion March deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Exports increased 8.7% (11.5% y/y) last month after a 3.6% February decline. Imports improved 6.8% (20.6% y/y) after falling 1.0% in February.
By category, nonauto consumer goods exports jumped 15.3% (18.1% y/y) following two months of sharp decline. Exports of capital goods rose 7.3% (-1.2% y/y) after falling 5.9% in February. Autos & parts exports increased 7.2% (15.4% y/y) after declining for two straight months. Foods, feeds & beverages exports edged 0.9% higher (21.5% y/y), also following two months of significant decline, while industrial supplies & materials exports rose 10.1% (19.2% y/y) after a 0.8% improvement.
Imports of autos & parts rose 7.3% (8.3% y/y) following two months of significant decline. Food & beverage imports rebounded 7.0% (9.4% y/y) last month after falling 4.9% in February. Nonauto consumer goods imports rebounded 7.0% (37.5% y/y) following a 4.2% drop. Auto & parts imports rose 7.3% (8.3% y/y) after falling sharply for two straight months. Industrial supplies imports strengthened 7.6% (22.1% y/y) with higher oil prices. Capital goods imports rose 5.7% (16.6 y/y) after a 0.3% improvement.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
| Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -90.59 | -87.07 | -84.35 | -65.59 (3/20) | -904.95 | -854.37 | -872.04 |
| Exports (% Chg) | 8.7 | -3.6 | 1.7 | 11.5 | -12.9 | -1.4 | 7.7 |
| Imports (% Chg) | 6.8 | -1.0 | 1.6 | 20.6 | -6.4 | -1.6 | 8.5 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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