Global| May 04 2011ADP Reports Moderate Job Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, indicated that the April level of private nonfarm payrolls rose 179,000 after a 207,000 [...]
In its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, indicated that the April level of private nonfarm payrolls rose 179,000 after a 207,000 March increase, revised from 201,000. The latest gain fell short of Action Economics expectations for a 195,000 increase.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report April payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 185,000 worker increase in jobs. For comparison, the March increase of 207,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 230,000 rise in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
A 138,000 gain in service-producing payrolls led the increase in April jobs in the ADP report. Goods-producing payrolls rose for the sixth consecutive month. The 41,000 increase outpaced the rise in factory sector jobs. Overall, small-sized payrolls grew 84,000 m/m (1.5% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls also rose 84,000 (1.7% y/y). Large payrolls were up 11,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction employment rose 14,000 and the number of financial activities jobs inched up 2,000.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 179 | 207 | 205 | 1.4% | -1.1% | -4.8% | -0.6% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 84 | 100 | 96 | 1.5 | -0.8 | -3.9 | 0.0 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 84 | 85 | 100 | 1.7 | -1.0 | -5.6 | -0.9 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 11 | 22 | 9 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -5.6 | -1.9 |
| Goods Producing | 41 | 38 | 20 | 0.6 | -5.1 | -12.3 | -3.6 |
| Manufacturing | 25 | 35 | 18 | 1.4 | -3.3 | -11.3 | -3.2 |
| Service Producing | 138 | 169 | 185 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -3.1 | 0.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
