Global| Mar 02 2011ADP Reports Continued Firm Job Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The corner clearly has been turned in the job market. In its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, indicated that the February level [...]
The corner clearly has been turned in the job market. In
its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor Automatic Data
Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, indicated that
the February level of private nonfarm payrolls rose another 217,000
m/m after a 189,000 January increase, last month reported as 187,000. The
latest gain exceeded Consensus expectations for a 170,000 increase. Earlier
figures were slightly revised due to new seasonal factors.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report February payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 190,000 worker increase in jobs. For comparison, the January increase of 189,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 50,000 rise in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
Another firm gain in private service producing payrolls of 202,000 was the greatest source of strength in the ADP report. It was the fourteenth consecutive monthly increase. Goods producing payrolls rose for the fourth month. The 15,000 increase was due to a 20,000 rise in factory sector jobs. Overall, small-sized payrolls grew 100,000 m/m (1.3% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls rose 104,000 (1.5% y/y). Large payrolls showed the weakest gain, up 13,000 (0.1% y/y). Construction employment slipped by 9,000 and the number of financial activities jobs was unchanged.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here.
| ADP National Employment Report | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 217 | 189 | 246 | 1.2% | -1.1% | -4.8% | -0.6% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 100 | 101 | 101 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -3.9 | 0.0 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 104 | 85 | 127 | 1.5 | -1.0 | -5.6 | -0.9 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 13 | 3 | 18 | 0.1 | -2.0 | -5.6 | -1.9 |
| Goods Producing | 15 | 23 | 26 | 0.1 | -5.1 | -12.3 | -3.6 |
| Manufacturing | 20 | 24 | 29 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -11.3 | -3.2 |
| Service Producing | 202 | 166 | 220 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -3.1 | 0.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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