Global| Mar 07 2012ADP Report Shows Job Market Improvement
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market continues to improve at a moderate rate. Private nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000 last month after rising 173,000 during January, revised from 170,000 reported last month. Earlier figures were revised due to updated [...]
The job market continues to improve at a moderate rate. Private nonfarm
payrolls rose 216,000 last month after rising 173,000 during January,
revised from 170,000 reported last month. Earlier figures were revised due
to updated seasonal factors. The figures come from the payroll processor
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic
Advisers. The latest increase beat Consensus expectations for a 200,000
gain and it left three-month growth at 2.4% (AR).
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report February payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 235,000 worker increase in private sector jobs. By comparison, the January increase of 173,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 257,000 gain in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP figure and the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles its estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The service sector again led improvement in the job market. Its 170,000 worker gain (1.8% y/y) contrasted to an improved 46,000 increase (1.3% y/y) in goods-producing payrolls while factory sector jobs rose 21,000 (1.0% y/y). Overall, small-sized payrolls again showed the greatest improvement with a 108,000 (1.9% y/y) gain. Medium-sized payrolls followed with an 88,000 (2.0% y/y) increase while large payrolls grew 20,000 (0.6% y/y). Construction employment grew 16,,000 and the number of financial activities jobs rose 14,000, the largest gain since 2005.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP National Employment Report | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 216 | 173 | 267 | 1.7% | 1.4% | -1.0% | -4.1% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 108 | 93 | 123 | 1.9 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -4.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 88 | 76 | 117 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -0.9 | -5.7 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 20 | 4 | 27 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -1.8 | -5.6 |
| Goods Producing | 46 | 24 | 42 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -4.8 | -12.4 |
| Manufacturing | 21 | 16 | 16 | 1.0 | 1.3 | -3.2 | -11.4 |
| Service Producing | 170 | 149 | 225 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -3.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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