Global| Apr 02 2008ADP Report: March Private Sector Payrolls Rose Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP National Employment Report, from the payroll processor, reported that private nonfarm payrolls rose 8,000 last month after a slightly revised decline of 18,000 during February. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment [...]
The ADP National Employment Report, from the payroll processor, reported that private nonfarm payrolls rose 8,000 last month after a slightly revised decline of 18,000 during February.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure for February will be published Friday.Last month, the 18,000 decline in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 101,000 worker decline in private sector payrolls as reported by BLS.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
The ADP sub-index for large payrolls fell 52,000 (-0.8% y/y)
after a 32,000 worker decline during February.
A 55,000 worker increase (1.3% y/y) in small sized payrolls during March offset that decline and followed a 16,000 worker increase the prior month.
Growth in medium sized payrolls of 5,000 (0.8% y/y) followed a 2,000 worker February decline.
Employment in the goods producing industries fell 77,000 (-2.0% y/y) and services payrolls rose 85,000 (1.4% y/y).
ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.
| LAXEPA@USECON | March | February | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) | 8,000 | -18,000 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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