Global| Jul 30 2008ADP Report: July Payrolls Rose With Service Sector Hiring
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP National Employment Report, from the payroll processor, indicated that July private nonfarm payrolls rose 9,000 after a revised 77,000 worker decline during June. Expectations had been for a July decline of 60,000. The U.S. [...]
The ADP National Employment Report, from the payroll processor, indicated that July private nonfarm payrolls rose 9,000 after a revised 77,000 worker decline during June. Expectations had been for a July decline of 60,000.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on July nonfarm payrolls this Friday. Last month, the 77,000 worker decline in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 91,000 worker decline in the BLS measure of private sector payrolls.According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
Higher employment in the service producing industry accounted
for the gain in ADP's measure for July with a 74,000 (1.1% y/y)
increase. Small payrolls rose 56,000 (1.6% y/y) while medium sized
payrolls increased 20,000 (1.2% y/y). Large service producing payrolls
reported a 2,000 (-0.4% y/y) decline which was the seventh drop in the
last eight months.
Goods producing payrolls fell by 65,000 (-2.5% y/y) led by a large decline of 29,000 (-2.7% y/y) in medium sized payrolls and a 30,000 (-4.3% y/y) worker decline in large payrolls.
The ADP sub-index for large payrolls overall fell 32,000 (-1.3% y/y) following a 51,000 worker drop during June.
A 9,000 (+0.4% y/y) worker decline in medium sized payrolls followed a 33,000 shortfall during June.
Small sized payrolls in July rose 50,000 (1.2% y/y) and that
followed a meager 7,000 June uptick.
ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's
USECONdatabase; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.
Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| LAXEPA@USECON | July | June | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) | 9,000 | -77,000 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
