Global| Feb 01 2012ADP Indicates Slower Job Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job growth is continuing at a moderate pace. Private nonfarm payrolls rose 170,000 last month after a 292,000 December increase which was revised down from 325,000 reported last month. The figures come from the payroll processor [...]
Job growth is continuing at a
moderate pace. Private nonfarm payrolls rose 170,000 last
month after a 292,000 December increase which was revised down
from 325,000 reported last month. The figures come from the
payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic
consultants Macroeconomic Advisers. The latest increase was
less than Consensus expectations for a 180,000 gain. The
recent monthly increases left three-month growth at 2.5% (AR).
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report January payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 155,000 worker increase in jobs. By comparison, the December increase of 292,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 212,000 gain in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP figure and the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles its estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The service sector continued to lead improvement in the job market. Its 152,000 worker gain (1.9% y/y) contrasted to an 18,000 increase (1.2% y/y) in goods-producing payrolls while factory sector jobs rose 10,000 (0.9% y/y). Overall, small-sized payrolls again showed the most improvement with a 95,000 (2.0% y/y) gain. Medium-sized payrolls followed with a 72,000 (2.0% y/y) increase while large payrolls grew just 3,000 (0.6% y/y). Construction employment ticked up 2,000 and the number of financial activities jobs rose 9,000.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Why Is Unemployment Duration So Long? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| ADP National Employment Report | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 170 | 292 | 209 | 1.8% | 1.4% | -1.1% | -4.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 95 | 136 | 111 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -0.8 | -3.9 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 72 | 126 | 85 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -1.0 | -5.6 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 3 | 30 | 13 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -5.6 |
| Goods Producing | 18 | 51 | 28 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -5.1 | -12.3 |
| Manufacturing | 10 | 20 | 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -11.3 |
| Service Producing | 152 | 241 | 181 | 1.9 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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