Global| Oct 03 2012ADP Indicates Another Moderate Job Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Employment growth remained moderate last month. September private sector payrolls rose 162,000 (2.0% y/y) as reported by the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers. The rise [...]
Employment growth remained moderate last month. September
private sector payrolls rose 162,000 (2.0% y/y) as reported by the
payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic
consultants Macroeconomic Advisers. The rise beat consensus
expectations for a 140,000 increase but was down from the August
gain of 189,000, initially reported as 201,000.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce September payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 134,000 worker increase in private sector jobs. By comparison, the August increase of 189,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls accompanied a 103,000 gain in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP figure and the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles its estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
Service producing payrolls rose a moderated 144,000 (2.1% y/y) last month after a 175,000 August increase. Goods-producing payroll growth remained subdued at 18,000 (1.3% y/y) and that reflected a 4,000 (0.8% y/y) worker increase in factory sector jobs. Overall, small-sized payrolls again led last month's job growth with an 81,000 increase (2.2% y/y). Medium-sized payrolls followed with a 64,000 rise (2.2% y/y) while large payrolls advanced just 17,000 (1.0% y/y). Construction employment rose 10,000, up for the fourth straight month, and the number of financial activities jobs increased a diminished 7,000.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP National Employment Report | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 162 | 189 | 156 | 2.0% | 1.4% | -1.0% | -4.1% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 81 | 94 | 69 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -4.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 64 | 79 | 64 | 2.2 | 1.8 | -0.9 | -5.7 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 17 | 16 | 23 | 1.0 | 0.4 | -1.8 | -5.6 |
| Goods Producing | 18 | 14 | 13 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -4.8 | -12.4 |
| Manufacturing | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -3.2 | -11.4 |
| Service Producing | 144 | 175 | 143 | 2.1 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -3.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
