Global| May 13 2003A Small Rise in German Business Confidence
Summary
The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment that often foreshadows movements in the broader and more closely watched IFO measures of German business confidence rose minimally in May but is still at low levels. The ZEW indicator of [...]
The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment that often foreshadows movements in the broader and more closely watched IFO measures of German business confidence rose minimally in May but is still at low levels. The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment measures the difference between those participants in the survey with a positive outlook on the economy over the next six months and those with a negative outlook. In May this indicator rose to 18.7% from 18.4% in April. The ZEW indicators are based on a small sample of some 300 analysts and institutional investors and the economic sentiment measure is volatile. The attached chart shows the ZEW indicator of Business Sentiment and the IFO balance of business expectations over the next six months.
The ZEW market survey also tracks the opinions of analysts and institutional investors regarding the outlook for stocks and bonds. The outlook for stocks has improved and that for bonds has become less negative.
| May 2003 | April 2003 | March 2003 | Feb 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZEW Indicators | |||||||
| Economic Sentiment (% balance) | 18.7 | 18.4 | 17.7 | 15 | 45.3 | 2.8 | 59.1 |
| Bonds (% balance) | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -3.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 | -2.8 |
| Stocks (% balance) | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 7 | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| Ifo Indicators | |||||||
| Business Climate | n.a. | 86.6 | 88.1 | 88.9 | 89.1 | 89.8 | 99.3 |
| Business Expectations | |||||||
| Next 6 Months (% Balance) | n.a. | -12.1 | -7.8 | -5.6 | -3 | -15.3 | 5.9 |
More Economy in Brief
