Global| Sep 29 20042Q US GDP Growth Revised Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
US real GDP growth last quarter was revised up to 3.3% as the estimated drag from foreign trade deficit erosion was lessened. Consensus expectations had been for an upward revision to just 3.0%. Corporate profit growth was revised up [...]
US real GDP growth last quarter was revised up to 3.3% as the estimated drag from foreign trade deficit erosion was lessened. Consensus expectations had been for an upward revision to just 3.0%.
Corporate profit growth was revised up to 2.9% (AR, 19.0% y/y). The earlier reported boom US nonfinancial corporate sector profit growth was revised higher to 26.2% (AR, 27.9% y/y). The rise in profits per unit of output was raised to 4.7% q/q (20.7% y/y).
Import growth was lowered slightly to 12.6% (10.7% y/y) and export growth was revised up slightly to 7.3% (AR, 10.8% y/y).
Inventory investment also was revised up slightly.
Growth in domestic final demand was little revised at 3.5%.
Prices grew the same 3.2% as estimated earlier.
| Chained 2000$, % AR | 2Q '04 (Revised) | 2Q '04 (Prelim.) |
1Q '04 (Final) |
Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Inventory Effect | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.5% | -0.8% |
| Final Sales | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Trade Effect | -1.1% | -1.4% | -0.8% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.7% | -0.2% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained GDP Price Index | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
by Tom Moeller September 29, 2004
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association jumped 4.9% last week. The average for mortgage applications in September is 7.4% ahead of August.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage ticked lower to 5.91% versus 6.04% averaged in August. In May, 30-year financing averaged 6.53%. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell to 5.33%, down from 5.97% averaged in May.
Applications to refinance added 7.7% to the prior week's 4.1% gain and for September are 12.9% ahead of August. Purchase applications rose 2.7% and for September are 3.5% higher than in August.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
"Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates" from the American Enterprise Institute can be found here.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 09/24/04 | 09/17/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 724.7 | 690.7 | 2.5% | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
| Purchase | 469.1 | 456.6 | 17.9% | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
| Refinancing | 2,211 | 2,052.5 | -11.8% | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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