Tom Moeller

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The housing market remains under pressure. New single-family home sales during June declined 8.1% (-17.4% y/y) to 590,000 (AR) after rising to 642,000 during May, revised from 696,000. It was the lowest sales level since April 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 664,000 sales in June.

A 36.7% decline (-32.9% y/y) in sales in the West to 112,000 last month led the sales weakness as it followed a 24.6% May rise. Sales have fallen 53.7% since December 2021. Sales in the Northeast weakened 5.3% last month (-37.9% y/y) to 18,000, off 64.7% in the last three months. Sales in the South eased 2.0% (-8.7% y/y) to 386,000 after rising 11.6% in May. Offsetting these declines, sales in the Midwest rose 42.3% in June (-22.1% y/y) to 74,000, the highest level in three months.

Lower prices accompanied the sales decline last month. The median price of a new home in June declined 9.5% (+7.4% y/y) to $402,400 following a 2.7% May weakening. The average sales price of a new home declined 11.1% (+5.8% y/y) to $456,800 following a 9.7% May decline. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sales weakness prompted a 2.2% increase (32.1% y/y) in the number of unsold new homes to 457,000, the most since April 2008. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.3 in May from 8.4 in May. It remained up from a record low of 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market fell to a record of 2.5 months. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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• Home sales fall to lowest level since April 2000.

• Sales decline in most of country.

• Median sales price falls for second straight month.

U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Decline Sharply in June

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) held steady during June at -0.19. The May reading was revised from 0.01.

The index's three-month moving average fell to -0.04 from 0.09 in May. It was the first negative reading since June 2020. During the last 10 years, there has been 76% correlation between the change in the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.

Two of the four major components of the index were negative last month. The Production & Income reading of -0.20 last month compared to -0.17 in May. That was below 0.23 in April. The Personal Consumption & Housing index of -0.06 in June compared to -0.08 in the prior month. Remaining positive at 0.05 was the Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure which was little changed m/m, but down from a recent high of 0.33 in February. The Sales, Orders & Inventories reading improved to 0.03 from -0.01 in May.

The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the component series, fell to -0.04 during June after having reached a high of 0.46 just six months earlier. Forty-one of the index components contributed positively to the June index while 42 contributed negatively.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of March 17, 2022. February data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published at that time. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.

The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

• Two of four components decline.

• Three-month index average turns negative.

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Remains Negative in June

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The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications declined 6.3% (-59.7% y/y) in the week ended July 15, the third consecutive week of decline. Purchase applications weakened 7.3% (-18.7% y/y), also the third consecutive fall. Applications to refinance an existing mortgage loan fell 4.3% (-79.9% y/y) after rising 2.2% in the previous week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 31.4%, the highest level in five weeks. The percentage of applications that were ARMs was little-changed at 9.5%.

Applications for fixed-rate loans fell 6.3% (-62.4% y/y), the third consecutive weekly decline. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages fell 6.6% (+17.7% y/y) after easing 0.5% in the previous week.

The effective rate on a fixed-rate loan rose to 6.0% from 5.9% in the prior week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages eased to 5.07%. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loan rose to 5.42% while the rate on 5-year ARMs fell to 4.96%.

The average loan size decreased 1.9% to $365,800 in the week of July 15. It has fallen from a series high of $401,900 reached in the week ended May 6. The average size of a purchase loan fell 2.1% to $406,600. The average refinancing loan size eased 0.3% to $276,500.

The Mortgage Bankers Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

These figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

• Purchase & refinancing applications both decline.

• Mortgage interest rates increase.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall to Lowest Level Since 2000

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Retail gasoline prices fell to $4.49 per gallon (+42.4% y/y) last week after declining to $4.65 per gallon in the prior week. Prices were at the lowest level since a record $5.01 per gallon in the second week of June.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell to $98.69 per barrel (+34.8% y/y) in the week ended July 15 from $102.40 in the prior week. Prices reached a peak $120.46 per barrel in the second week of June. Yesterday the price was $102.60 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil declined to $109.80 per barrel (+44.9% y/y) from $113.64 per barrel in the prior week. Yesterday, the price was $117.27 per barrel.

The price of natural gas rose to $6.76/mmbtu (81.2% y/y) in the week of July 15 from $5.90 /mmbtu in the previous week. The latest was the highest price in four weeks, up from a low of $5.90 in the prior week. Yesterday, the price was $7.65/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended June 10, gasoline demand fell 8.0% y/y. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 4.1% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries increased 2.1% y/y.

Gasoline inventories decreased 4.9% y/y in the week of July 8 while crude oil inventories declined 13.9% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended July 8 rose to 25.8 days, the most since the end of April. The supply of crude oil was little-changed at 25.9 days, down from 41.8 days in early-March of last year.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

• Retail gasoline & crude oil prices reach five-week lows.

• Natural gas prices rise modestly.

U.S. Gasoline & Oil Prices Decline Again

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U.S. real GDP fell 1.6% (+3.5% y/y) during Q1'22, revised from the second estimate of a 1.5% weakening issued last month. The decline followed a 6.9% rise during Q4'21 and was the only quarter of negative growth since the end of the recession in Q2'20. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.4% decline.

After-tax corporate profits rose 1.0% (15.2% y/y), revised from 1.5%. The gain followed a 0.8% slip in Q4'21. Profits before tax declined a minimally changed 2.2% (+12.6% y/y). Nonfinancial sector earnings eased 0.3% (+15.8% y/y), revised from -1.1% and remained the first decline in five quarters. Financial sector profits fell a deepened 9.3%, revised from -5.2% and earnings from abroad weakened 1.5% (11.5% y/y), revised from -3.2%.

Inventory liquidation reduced growth by 0.4 percentage points, revised from -1.1 percentage points. Deterioration in the foreign trade balance subtracted an unchanged, near-record 3.2 percentage points from growth last quarter as exports fell 4.8% (+4.4% y/y) and imports jumped 18.9% (12.0% y/y).

Growth in final demand to domestic purchasers was lessened to 2.0% (3.2% y/y) from 2.7% following 5.3% growth in Q4'21. Personal consumption rose 1.8% (4.5% y/y), revised from 3.1%. In the services area, recreation expenditures rose a lessened 1.9% (20.3% y/y), revised from 6.1% while restaurant & hotel spending rose a little-changed 5.2% (19.5% y/y). Health care expenditures eased 0.4% (4.5% y/y), revised from +2.3%, while outlays on housing & utilities firmed a little-changed 3.6% (1.4% y/y). Motor vehicle expenditures rose a little-changed 16.2% (-10.5% y/y) but spending on recreational goods & vehicles was lowered to 5.2% (5.6% y/y) from 6.9%. Furniture & appliance purchases fell 4.8% (-5.2% y/y), previously -3.9%. ln the nondurable goods sector, apparel spending declined 5.2% (+6.1% y/y), revised from -4.9% while gasoline expenditures fell 11.4% (+8.0% y/y), revised from -14.4%.

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In the business investment sector, spending rose 10.0% (5.9% y/y), revised from 9.2%. Structures investment eased 0.9% (-4.1% y/y), revised from -3.6%. Equipment investment strengthened 14.1% (6.5% y/y), revised from 13.2%. Investment in computers strengthened a little-changed 24.7% (9.9% y/y) and industrial equipment investment rose a little-changed 13.0% (16.3% y/y). Transportation equipment investment fell a lessened 7.9% (-6.8% y/y). Investment in intellectual property products increased a little-revised 11.2% (10.4% y/y).

Residential investment edged higher by a minimally changed 0.5% (-4.4% y/y) last quarter.

In the government sector, spending declined a little-changed 2.9% (-1.7% y/y). Federal government outlays fell 6.8% (-5.4% y/y), revised from -6.0% as defense spending declined a deepened 9.8% (-4.7% y/y). State & local government outlays eased a minimally changed 0.5% (+0.7% y/y).

Pricing power continued to strengthen last quarter. The 8.2% increase (6.8% y/y) in the chain-type price index compared to 8.1% reported last month. It compared to expectations for an 8.1% rise. It was the largest increase since Q1'81, paced by a minimally changed 18.2% (15.0% y/y) surge in the cost of residential investment. Overall consumer prices rose a minimally changed 7.1% (6.3% y/y). The nondurable consumer goods price index rose a minimally changed 15.0% (8.9% y/y) with the surge in gasoline prices. The durable consumer goods price index rose a little-changed 6.5% (10.9% y/y) and the consumer services price index gained a little-changed 4.6% both q/q and y/y. Outside of food & energy, the PCE price index increased 5.2% both q/q and y/y. The business investment price index increased 7.0% (5.0% y/y), revised from 7.2%. The government sector price index increased a minimally changed 9.8% (7.4% y/y).

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

**Credit Conditions in the Pandemic Mortgage Market** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.

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• Domestic demand growth reduced.

• Int'l trade deficit continues to subtract near-record from GDP growth.

• Inventory decumulation lessened.

U.S. GDP Decline is Deepened in Q1'22; Corporate Profit Growth is Shaved

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May from $105.9 billion in April. A $102.4 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Total exports rose 1.5% (22.4% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of strong increase. Total imports improved 0.4% in May (20.9% y/y) after a 5.0% April decline.

Industrial supplies & materials exports jumped 4.6% last month (39.9% y/y) after rising 3.0% in April. Exports of nonauto consumer goods increased 3.8% (19.6% y/y) and reversed a 1.1% drop. Auto exports strengthened 2.8% (17.5% y/y) after easing 0.6%. To the downside, foods, feeds & beverage exports fell 8.4% (+14.5% y/y) after a 12.4% April gain. Capital goods exports eased 0.6% (+8.0% y/y) following two months of strong increase.

Imports of industrial supplies & materials increased 3.4% (39.1% y/y) with strength in oil prices. Auto imports gained 1.1% (16.8% y/y) after rising 2.7% in April. Falling by 2.1% (+16.9% y/y) were consumer goods imports following an 8.2% decline. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.9% (+17.8% y/y) after two months of strong increase. Capital goods imports slipped 0.3% in May (+14.2% y/y) after falling 4.7%.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

• Exports rise solidly while imports edge up.

• May & April deficits suggest trade will add to Q2 GDP growth.

U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June to 98.7, after falling 5.0% in May, revised from -2.0%. The index level was the lowest since February 2021. A reading of 100.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Consumers' views of future economic conditions dimmed considerably. The Consumer Expectations index weakened 9.9% in June (-38.8% y/y) to 66.4, the lowest level since March 2013. It was down 40.7% since the recent peak in March 2021. The Present Situations index slipped 0.2% (-7.8% y/y), the fifth decline in the last six months.

Labor market readings remained weak. The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get, improved to 39.7% from 39.5%, but it remained below the near-record 44.7% in April. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has had a 69% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure fell this month to 51.3%, a thirteen -month low and down from the record 56.7% in March. The jobs hard-to-get measure eased to 11.6% of respondents, up from an expansion low of 9.6% in March.

Current business conditions were perceived as good by a lessened 19.6% of respondents in June. Expectations that business conditions would improve in six months fell sharply to 14.7% of respondents, down from a 42.5% high in May 2020. More jobs were expected in six months by a lessened 16.3% of respondents, roughly half the percentage in March of last year. The percentage expecting rising income weakened to 15.9% of respondents.

Inflation expectations ratcheted higher. The expected inflation rate in twelve months rose to a record 8.0%. (The series dates back to August 1987.) The figure was increased from a 4.4% low in January of 2020. Nearly three-quarters of respondents expected that interest rates would rise over the next twelve months, the most in three years.

The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months held steady at 5.6% and remained below a July 2020 high of 7.7%. Those planning to buy a major appliance rose to 45.9% of respondents, still below the 53.9% high registered in July 2021.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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• Expectation reading plunges while current conditions ease.\
• Employment expectations diminish.\
• Expected inflation touches new high.\

U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June

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Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods exhibited unexpected improvement in May, posting a 0.7% gain (10.6% y/y) after a 0.4% April increase. The gain contrasted with an expected 0.1% rise in the in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, key measure of capital goods spending, improved 0.5% in May following an unrevised 0.3% April gain. These orders improved 9.8% y/y.

Transportation equipment orders rose 0.8% (16.3% y/y) after a 0.7% April increase. Motor vehicle & parts orders improved 0.5% (16.2% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Defense aircraft orders rose 8.1% (9.7% y/y) after rising 2.4%.

Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.7% (8.1% y/y) in May following a 0.2% April improvement. Machinery orders rose 1.1% (10.5% y/y), about as they did in April. Electrical equipment & appliance orders fell 0.9% (+6.5% y/y), the same as in April. Computer & electronic product orders improved 0.5% (5.8% y/y) after holding steady in April. Primary metals orders surged 3.1% (13.5% y/y) but fabricated metals bookings held steady (8.2% y/y).

Shipments of durable goods surged 1.3% (12.7% y/y) after a 0.3% April improvement, revised from 0.1%. Transportation shipments rose 2.1% (16.1% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Excluding transportation, shipments improved 1.0% (11.3% y/y) during May after a 0.2% April gain. Machinery shipments jumped 1.6% (14.7% y/y) while shipments of computers and electronic products gained 0.3% (5.5% y/y). Shipments of electrical equipment and appliances rose 1.9% (12.1% y/y) while primary metals shipments strengthened 2.7% (21.1% y/y).

The advance reading on shipments of nondurable goods indicated a 2.2% rise during May (17.2% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. Shipments from all manufacturing industries rose 1.8% (14.9% y/y) in May after a 0.6% April. Capital goods shipments excluding defense and aircraft increased 0.8% (11.7% y/y) in May, the same as in April.

Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.3% last month (7.3% y/y) following two months of 0.5% increase. Unfilled orders are not calculated for nondurable goods.

Durable goods inventories increased 0.6% (9.9% y/y) following a 0.9% April gain. Nondurable goods inventories rose 2.3% (13.1% y/y) after strong gains in three of the prior four months.

The durable goods and nondurable goods data are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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• Core capital goods orders improve again.

• Shipments surge with strength in aircraft.

• Order backlogs & inventories increase.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm in May

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Home buying weakness eased last month. The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors improved 0.7% during May after falling 4.0% in April, revised from -3.9%. It was the first increase following six consecutive monthly declines. Pending home sales have fallen 18.4% since the recent peak in October of 2021.

A 15.4% sales gain (-11.9% y/y) in the Northeast recovered a 15.9% April decline. In the South, sales did rise as well but just by 0.2% (-13.8% y/y), the first increase in seven months. In the Midwest, sales declined 1.7% (-8.8% y/y) after rising 6.1% in April. Sales weakened 5.0% in the West last month (-19.8% y/y) but they have fallen 21.1% since October.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.

• Increase follows six straight months of decline.

• Only one region shows significant gain.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve in May

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Earlier weakness in new home sales stabilized last month, as the job market remained firm. New single-family home sales during May increased 10.7% (-5.9% y/y) to 696,000 units (SAAR) following a 12.0% decline in April to 629,000, revised from 591,000. The increase occurred despite a rise in the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loans to 5.23% from 4.98% in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 592,000 sales in May.

Sales improvement was scattered across the country. Sales in the West surged 39.3% (0.5% y/y) to 202,000 last month following a 20.8% April decline. It was the highest level since January. Sales in the South rose 12.8% (1.5% y/y) to 413,000, the highest level in three months, after falling 7.3% during April. Offsetting these increases, sales in the Northeast declined 51.1% (-42.5% y/y) to 23,000, the lowest level since April 2020. Sales in the Midwest were off 18.3% (-37.0% y/y) to 58,000, the lowest level in six months.

Lower prices helped fuel home sales last month. The median price of a new home in May weakened 1.3% (+15.0% y/y) to $449,000 following a rise to a record $454,000 in April. The average sales price of a new home declined 10.2% (+14.8% y/y) to $511,400 from April's record $569,500. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The decline in sales left the market better stocked. The number of unsold new homes increased 1.6% (35.4% y/y) to 444,000, the most since May 2008 and up by roughly one-third y/y. However, the seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 7.7 in May from 8.3 in April. It remained up from a record low of 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market fell to a record of 2.4 months. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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• Gain follows four straight months of decline.

• Improvement is uneven throughout country.

• Median sales price falls modestly.

U.S. New Home Sales Rise Unexpectedly in May

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West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell to $116.46 per barrel (+62.7% y/y) in the week ended June 17 and reversed the prior week's increase to $120.46. The price has risen from $71.59 per barrel at the end of last year. Yesterday, the price was $110.65 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil weakened to $119.55 per barrel last week (+62.5% y/y) after rising to $121.57 per barrel in the prior week. Yesterday, the price was $115.04 per barrel.

The price of natural gas declined to $7.93/mmbtu (+141.8% y/y) in the week ended June 17 after increasing to $8.95/mmbtu in the prior week. The price remains up versus a low of $1.52/mmbtu averaged in the third week of June 2020. Yesterday, the price fell further to $6.60/mmbtu.

Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y) in the week ended June 13 from $4.88 per gallon in the previous week. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for normal seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted price jumped ten cents to $4.88 per gallon.

In the four weeks ended June 10, gasoline demand fell 1.1% y/y. Demand for all petroleum products, however, rose 2.3% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries increased 3.0% y/y.

Gasoline inventories decreased 10.5% y/y in the week of June 10 while crude oil inventories declined 14.8% y/y.

The supply of gasoline inventories in the week ended June 10 eased to 24.1 days from 24.2 days in the previous week. The supply of crude oil held steady at 25.8 days, down from 41.8 days in early-March of last year.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in USENERGY.

**The First Steps toward Disinflation** from James Bullard, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.

• Crude oil prices weaken sharply.

• Natural gas prices decline.

U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains

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The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22 from $224.8 billion in Q4'21, revised from $217.9 billion. Data back to 2017 was revised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a $279.0 billion deficit. As a percent of GDP, the Q1 deficit deepened to 4.78% from 3.75% in Q4 (revised from 3.63%). Exports overall grew 2.6% (14.4% y/y) after a 5.1% gain while imports surged 7.5% (21.4% y/y) following a 4.0% Q4 rise.

The deficit in goods trade rose to a new record $342.2 billion last quarter from $285.0 billion in Q4, revised from $283.4 billion. Exports grew 2.9% (18.8% y/y) following a 7.2% gain. Industrial supplies & materials exports rose 7.7% (36.2% y/y) while capital goods exports rose 2.9% (12.4% y/y). Automobile & parts exports gained 1.2% (0.3% y/y). Exports of foods, feeds & beverages edged 0.5% higher (6.9% y/y) but consumer goods excluding food and autos fell 5.9% (+23.8% y/y).

Imports of goods increased 9.4% (22.8% y/y) following a 6.2% increase. The rise was led by a 9.2% gain (44.1% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials imports, paced by rising oil prices. Nonauto consumer goods imports strengthened 12.8% (20.5% y/y) while auto imports rose 9.7% (4.7% y/y). Capital goods imports increased 7.9% (17.4% y/y) while food & beverage imports rose 7.5% (25.0% y/y).

The surplus on services trade declined in Q1 to $58.5 billion from $60.0 billion in Q4, revised from $54.4 billion. Services exports rose 2.0% (15.6% y/y). Travel exports rose 5.2% (88.3% y/y) as tourism strengthened. Services imports improved 3.8% (32.4% y/y) with a 2.0% gain (154.7% y/y) in travel imports. Charges for the use of intellectual property jumped 26.5% (40.8% y/y).

The surplus on primary income narrowed to $33.4 billion in Q1 from $37.0 billion in Q4. Primary income receipts rose 2.6% (9.0% y/y). Primary income payments increased 4.6% (14.2% y/y).

On the capital flow side of the ledger, the net US acquisition of foreign financial assets surged to $343.1 billion in Q1 from $49.4 billion in Q4. Direct investment assets surged to $115.2 billion from $64.9 billion in Q4.

Balance of Payments data are in Haver's **USINT** database, with summaries available in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress** by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell is available here.

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• Deficit is greater-than-expected.

• Goods deficit widened to another record.

• Services surplus shrinks.

U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22

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