Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• 

  USA| Aug 08 2022

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Weakness Led by Oil

  • Oil prices reach lowest level since February.

  • Steel scrap & framing lumber prices remain notably weak.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Aug 05 2022

  U.S. Job Market Improves Broadly During July

  • Payroll employment increase accelerates to 528,000.

  • Wage gain remains firm at 5.2% y/y.

  • Unemployment rate returns to 50-year low.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Aug 04 2022

  U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Narrows in June

  • Deficit is smallest in six months.

  • Exports continue to strengthen but imports fall.

  • Petroleum imports increase.

  • Trade deficit with China widens.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Aug 03 2022

  U.S. ISM Services PMI Improves During July

  • Component gains led by business activity & new orders.

  • Employment improves but supplier delivery speeds increase.

  • Prices index declines sharply.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Aug 02 2022

  JOLTS: Job Openings & Hiring Decline in June

  • The number of job openings fall for third consecutive month.

  • New hires are off for fourth straight month.

  • Separations decline with fewer quits.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Aug 02 2022

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline

  • Gasoline prices off sharply from mid-June peak.

  • Crude oil price reverses earlier improvement.

  • Natural gas prices strengthen.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Aug 02 2022

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rise Modestly in July

  • Light truck sales improve but car sales are stable.

  • Sales remain constrained as parts shortages limit dealer inventory.

  • Imports' share slips.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Aug 01 2022

  U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Slips

  • Composite index, nevertheless, continues to indicate expansion.

  • New orders decline but employment index improves.

  • Price index falls sharply.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Jul 28 2022

  U.S. GDP Growth Is Negative in Q2'22; Price Inflation Picks Up

  • Inventory decumulation subtracts from total.

  • Domestic final demand slips.

  • Foreign trade deficit lessens.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Jul 27 2022

  U.S. Durable Goods Orders Strengthen Unexpectedly During June

  • Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft improve steadily.

  • Transportation equipment orders surge.

  • Order backlogs & inventories increase.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Jul 27 2022

  FOMC Lifts Fed Funds Rate as Expected

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed announced a 75-basis point increase in the target range for the Federal funds rate to 2.25% - 2.50%. It was the second consecutive 75-basis point move and placed the rate at the highest level since July 2019, up from a low near zero in mid-March.

  The Fed has raised the funds rate at four consecutive meetings. The latest move was in line with expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey and it was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.

  Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell indicated that "From the standpoint of our Congressional mandate to support maximum employment and price stability, the current picture is plain to see: The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high."

  The statement which accompanied today's action indicated that the Fed "anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

  The Fed also indicated that "Recent indicators of spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures."

  The statement issued following today's meeting can be found here.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Jul 26 2022

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Weaken Sharply

  • Gasoline costs down for sixth straight week.

  • Crude oil prices improve slightly.

  • Natural gas prices strengthen.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief