• Effects of COVID-19 outbreak increasingly restrains economy. • Contraction in activity is broad-based. The National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened to -16.74 during April from -4.97 in March, revised from -4.19. It was a record [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| May 26 2020Chicago Fed National Activity Index Signals Intensified Recession
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 22 2020
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Rebound Led by Petroleum
• Oil prices rise as lockdown eases. • Metals prices improve. • Plywood prices surge. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) jumped 9.4% during the four weeks [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 21 2020
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fall Sharply Again in April
• Reflecting impact of pandemic, total leading index declines 4.4% in April, following record 7.4% drop in March. • Coincident indicators confirm deep economic recession. • Lagging indicators detect labor market stress. The Conference [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 21 2020
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Remains Weak But Expectations Improve
• Business activity index is negative for third straight month. • Orders, shipments and employment readings shaved losses, while remaining negative. • Expectations improve again. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 20 2020
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline As Rates Are Little Changed
• Refinancings plummet but purchases surge. • Home buyers lock in low financing rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Application Index fell 2.6% (+64.0% y/y) last week following negligible increases [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 19 2020
E-Commerce Sales Strengthen
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that during the first quarter of this year, retail sales via the internet (E-Commerce) rose 2.4% (SA) from Q4. The gain followed a 2.2% Q4 rise. E-Commerce sales increased a steady 14.8% y/y. This [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 19 2020
U.S. Housing Starts Post Record Decline in April
• Housing sector continues under pressure due to coronavirus shutdowns. • Starts decline to five-year low. • Falling permits suggest more weakness to come. New residential home building continues to weaken dramatically. Housing starts [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 19 2020
U.S. Petroleum Prices Strengthen
• Gasoline prices continue to increase. • Crude oil prices rise to highest level since early-March. • Natural gas prices fall to six-week low. Retail gasoline prices increased to $1.88 per gallon (-34.2% y/y) in the week ended May 18 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 18 2020
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Stabilizes at Depressed Level
• Housing market remains notably weak. • Few are looking to buy a home. The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo moved up to 37 during May (-43.9% y/y) after collapsing to 30 in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 15 2020
U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Start to Evaporate in March
• Data indicate severe weakness in labor market. • Hiring weakens as job openings start to disappear. • Layoffs surge. Fewer quits suggest workers have no option but to stay put. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 15 2020
U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales Post Record Decline
• Consumers pull back as coronavirus takes hold. • Spending cutbacks are broad-based. Social distancing, store closings and travel restrictions took their toll on consumer spending last month. Total retail sales, including food [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 14 2020
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain High; Continuing Claims Rise
• Initial jobless insurance claims eased to 2.981 million last week. • Over the last eight weeks 36.5 million individuals, 23.3% of the labor force, have filed new claims. • Continuing claims continue to increase. Initial jobless [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- of1074Go to 162 page