Global| Jul 29 2020U.S. International Trade Deficit Shrinks Unexpectedly in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Trade deficit in goods narrows to $70.64 billion. • Exports surge 13.9% while imports rise 5.4%. • Strength in exports is broad-based. The advance U.S. trade report showed the goods trade deficit narrowed to $70.64 billion in June [...]
• Trade deficit in goods narrows to $70.64 billion.
• Exports surge 13.9% while imports rise 5.4%.
• Strength in exports is broad-based.
The advance U.S. trade report showed the goods trade deficit narrowed to $70.64 billion in June from $74.34 billion in May. A deficit of $75.4 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The improvement in exports was led by autos, parts & engines which jumped 144.1% (-37.3% y/y), following three months of sharp decline. Consumer goods exports improved 12.1% (-23.5% y/y) after having risen 5.5% in May. An 11.5% rise (-23.1% y/y) in "other" exports followed three straight months of decline, while capital goods exports improved 10.8% (-22.2% y/y) after falling in four of the prior five months. Exports of industrial supplies & materials rose 9.7% (-26.2% y/y) as oil prices increased. Offsetting these gains was a 4.5% decline (-17.3% y/y) in food & beverage exports, down for the third straight month.
The 5.4% gain in imports came on the heels of five consecutive months of decline. It was led by a 107.9% jump (-42.9% y/) in autos & parts, which had fallen for three straight months. Consumer goods imports improved 10.1% (-8.2% y/y) after rising 4.4% in May. Capital goods imports improved 5.2% (-12.5% y/y) after declining in four of the prior five months. Imports of foods, feeds & beverages rose 2.6% (-2.3% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Industrial supplies imports declined 18.6% (-17.8% y/y) while imports of "other" goods fell 2.7% (-34.3% y/y), down for the third straight month.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
| Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -70.64 | -74.34 | -69.67 | -74.17 (6/19) |
-864.33 | -880.30 | -799.34 |
| Exports (% Chg) | 13.9 | -5.6 | -25.3 | -24.7 | -1.5 | 7.7 | 6.8 |
| Imports (% Chg) | 5.4 | -0.4 | -14.0 | -17.7 | -1.6 | 8.5 | 6.8 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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