The National Association for Business Economics expects 3.6% growth in real GDP during 2021. This follows a record recession this year, with GDP expected to contract 5.9%. The National Bureau of Economic Research has specified [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jun 05 2020U.S. Job Market Exhibits Modest Healing
• Payroll hiring turns positive following declines induced by the coronavirus. • Jobless rate slips as employment increases. • Earnings falter after strong gains. The labor market showed signs of life in May following extreme duress [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 05 2020
U.S. Consumer Credit Continues to Decline
• Cautious spending breeds less credit usage. Consumer credit outstanding fell $68.8 billion (+1.6 y/y) during April following an $11.6 billion decline during March, revised from $-12.0 billion. A decline of $45.0 billion had been [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 05 2020
U.S. Job Market Exhibits Modest Healing
• Payroll hiring turns positive following declines induced by the coronavirus. • Jobless rate slips as employment increases. • Earnings falter after strong gains. The labor market showed signs of life in May following extreme duress [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 05 2020
U.S. Job Market Exhibits Modest Healing
• Payroll hiring turns positive. • Jobless rate slips as employment increases. • Earnings falter after strong gains. The labor market showed signs of life in May following extreme duress in April. Nonfarm payroll employment improved [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
• The foreign trade deficit in goods & services added to its March deterioration. • Exports declined sharply as recessions abroad continued. • Imports fell precipitously with lower oil prices & developing U.S. recession. The U.S. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 03 2020
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Activity Index Rebounds in May
• Service sector business improves moderately. • Business activity recovery is notable. • Prices index steadies. As states reopen, nonmanufacturing business activity is picking up. The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 03 2020
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Declines Moderate During May
• Monthly decline follows record drop in April. • Employment drops in all sectors. • Factory payrolls remain notably hard hit. Job market weakness continued last month, although the rate of decline moderated versus April. The ADP [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 02 2020
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Recover in May
• Car & light truck sales both rise. • Sales remain 28.6% below the February level. • Fewer vehicle sales have been meaningful drag on economic growth. The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles strengthened 41.5% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 02 2020
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Firm
• Gasoline prices edge higher to eight-week high. • Crude oil prices continue to increase. • Natural gas prices ease. As parts of the economy slowly reopened, the pump price for a gallon of gasoline edged up to $1.97 (-29.7% y/y) in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 01 2020
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in May
• The Composite Index remained below the break-even level of 50 for the third straight month. • Monthly improvement in the component series was widespread. • The prices index rose moderately. The coronavirus exhibited less of a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 29 2020
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Weakens Further During May
• Chicago PMI fell to lowest level since March 1982. • ISM-Adjusted measure similarly weakened due to COVID-19. • Lower production & new orders continued to lead decline. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 32.3 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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