Global| Jul 24 2020U.S. New Home Sales Strengthen Unexpectedly in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• New single-family home sales firmed for second month. • Sales rose throughout the country. • Prices strengthen to four-month high. Sales of new single-family homes increased 13.8% (6.9% y/y) during June to 776,000 (AR) from 682,000 [...]
• New single-family home sales firmed for second month.
• Sales rose throughout the country.
• Prices strengthen to four-month high.
Sales of new single-family homes increased 13.8% (6.9% y/y) during June to 776,000 (AR) from 682,000 in May, revised up from 676,000. The increase followed May's 19.4% rise and left sales at the highest level since July 2007. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 700,000 during June.
The rise in home sales occurred against the backdrop of a decline in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to an average 3.16% in June from 3.23% averaged in May. Rates have since fallen to an average 3.02% so far this month.
Sales in the Northeast rose 89.7% to 55,000 and have more-than-doubled y/y. Sales in the West strengthened 18.0% (4.1% y/y) to 203,000. Sales in the Midwest improved 10.5% (33.3% y/y) to 84,000 while sales in the South rose 7.2% (-1.8% y/y) to 434,000.
The median price of a new home increased 6.1% (5.6% y/y) to $329,200 in June while the average price of a new home improved 6.2% (6.3% y/y) to $384,700. Home prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, have been range-bound for the past few years.
The months' supply of new homes on the market declined sharply to 4.7 in June from May's 5.5 months. These figures remained down versus a recent high of 6.8 months in April. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 3.9, the longest since March 2018.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database, while MBA loan applications can be found in SURVEYW. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 776 | 682 | 571 | 6.9 | 685 | 614 | 616 |
| Northeast | 55 | 29 | 22 | 111.5 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
| Midwest | 84 | 76 | 77 | 33.3 | 72 | 75 | 72 |
| South | 434 | 405 | 337 | -1.8 | 400 | 347 | 341 |
| West | 203 | 172 | 135 | 4.1 | 183 | 160 | 164 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 329,200 | 310,200 | 307,100 | 5.6 | 319,267 | 323,125 | 321,633 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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