The Conference Boards National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising improved to 39 last month, the highest level since March. During the last ten years there has been a 92% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Dec 29 2003Help-Wanted Advertising Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 24 2003
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Plunged
Durable goods orders unwound much of the prior month's strength with a 3.1% plunge in November. October orders were revised up to a 4.0% gain from the advance report of a 3.3% jump. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% rise in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 23 2003
3Q U.S. GDP Unrevised at 8.2%
US economic growth was unrevised at 8.2% (AR) for 3Q03, as expected. Growth in corporate profits w/IVA & CCA was lowered slightly to 46.0% (AR, 24.9% y/y) from the initial read of 56.0% growth. That followed a 48.1% burst in 2Q. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 22 2003
US Dollar Up This Month Versus Major Currency Index, Depressed Vs. Euro
The foreign exchange value of the US dollar versus major currencies has risen 2.5% since the early December low (-12.2% y/y). Roughly 50% of US foreign trade is with the countries in the major currency index. Since 1990 there has been [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 18 2003
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Drop Sharply
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 22,000 (-5.9%) last week to 353,000. That followed an increase the prior week that was revised to 10,000 from 13,000 reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 370,000. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 17 2003
Mortgage Applications Rebound
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week recovered most of the prior week's decline with a 12.6% gain. Purchase applications recovered virtually all of the prior period's drop with a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 16 2003
Consumer Prices Fell Broadly
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) fell 0.2% (+1.8% y/y) last month after no change in October. It was the first decline in the CPI since April. Consensus expectations were for a 0.1% rise. Less food & energy prices fell 0.1%, the first [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 15 2003
Empire State Index Firm
The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions for December remained at a firm reading of 37.37, down just slightly from the record 40.14 in November. Consensus expectations had been for a larger decline to 33.0. The new orders [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 12 2003
Producer Prices Fell
Finished producer prices in November reversed some of the prior month's strength and fell 0.3%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. Core producer prices also changed direction and fell 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.1% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 11 2003
U.S. Retail Sales Strong
Retail sales jumped 0.9% last month and the previously reported 0.3% October decline was revised up to little change. Consensus expectations were for a 0.6% November increase. Excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers, sales rose 0.4% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 10 2003
Mortgage Applications & Delinquencies Down
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association cratered 12.2% last week (-30.3% y/y) following an 11.7% decline the week prior. Purchase applications fell 9.5% (+11.4% y/y) to the lowest level in a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Dec 09 2003
Chain Store Sales Buried by Snow
Chain store sales slumped 2.5% last week as two snowstorms blanketed the Northeast region of the US, according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The decline followed a 0.1% dip in sales during Thanksgiving week. Sales during all of November [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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