Global| Dec 11 2003U.S. Retail Sales Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales jumped 0.9% last month and the previously reported 0.3% October decline was revised up to little change. Consensus expectations were for a 0.6% November increase. Excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers, sales rose 0.4% [...]
Retail sales jumped 0.9% last month and the previously reported 0.3% October decline was revised up to little change. Consensus expectations were for a 0.6% November increase.
Excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers, sales rose 0.4% last month and the previously reported 0.2% October gain was doubled. Consensus expectations were for a 0.4% rise.
Sales at food services & drinking places rose 0.3% (9.5% y/y) following a 2.2% October increase that was revised up.
Apparel and accessory store sales surged 1.1% (5.7% y/y), the strongest gain since July. Apparel prices recently have been firming. Sales of furniture and home furnishings jumped 1.0% (8.9% y/y) and sales of electronics ballooned 2.2% (15.0% y/y). Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.1% (4.9% y/y) following a slight October decline.
Motor vehicle dealers' sales rose 2.6% m/m in November on the strength on a 7.7% jump in unit sales of light vehicles. Sales at gasoline service stations rose 1.6% (5.9% y/y) though gasoline prices fell slightly m/m.
Sales of building materials rose 0.3% (11.0% y/y) following a 1.5% surge the prior month that was little revised.
Sales of nonstore retailers fell 0.4% (6.7% y/y) following five months of strong increase.
| Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.9% | -0.0% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 6.7% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4% | 0.4% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 7.4% |
by Tom Moeller December 11, 2003
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose 13,000 last week to 378,000. That followed an unrevised 11,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 365,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose again to 364,750 (-8.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 11,000. The prior week was revised to a decline of 4,000 versus the 44,000 increase reported initially.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.6% from a downwardly revised level the week prior.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/06 | 11/29 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 378.0 | 365.0 | -11.9% | 404.3 | 406.0 | 299.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,346 | -2.1% | 3,575 | 3,022 | 2,114 |
by Tom Moeller December 11, 2003
Prices for imported commodities rose last month by double the Consensus expectation for a 0.2% increase. The 0.4% m/m gain was fueled by a surprising 1.1% jump in petroleum import prices.
So far in December, the price of Brent Crude Oil is up from the $28.71/bbl averaged in November.
Non-petroleum import prices rose 0.3%, the strongest one month gain since June. Capital goods prices rose for the first time since June, up 0.2% (-0.9% y/y). Non-auto consumer goods prices also were up a strong 0.3% (0.2% y/y), the most for any month since mid-2000.
Export prices rose 0.5% led by another jump in food prices (11.0% y/y). Export prices elsewhere were tame.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.1% | -2.5% | -3.5% | 6.5% |
| Petroleum | 1.1% | 1.4% | 11.9% | 3.0% | -17.2% | 66.5% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.3% | -0.1% | 1.1% | -2.4% | -1.5% | 1.0% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.8% | -1.0% | -0.8% | 1.6% |
by Tom Moeller December 11, 2003
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in October for the second consecutive month. The rise was double Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Retail inventories added 0.6% in October to the prior month's 1.1% rise. Rising inventories of motor vehicles and parts led the gains in both months.
Excluding autos, retail inventories rose 0.2% following the 0.9% September surge. Inventories of furniture have been quite strong, up 1.9% (7.2% y/y) after a 1.0% gain in September. Conversely, inventories of apparel (+2.2% y/y) have fallen in six of the last seven months.
Overall business sales jumped 0.7% (5.1% y/y) following the 0.9% September gain. Factory shipments and wholesale sales were strong in both months.
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.35, a new record low.
| Business Inventories | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | -4.7% | 5.1% |
| Retail | 0.6% | 1.1% | 5.1% | 7.6% | -2.9% | 6.0% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | -1.2% | 3.7% |
| Wholesale | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | -4.9% | 6.1% |
| Manufacturing | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.1% | -1.8% | -6.1% | 3.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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