The INSEE survey of business sentiment is lower in May, as the overall index fell to 102 from 106 in April. The index (blue line) has been moving sideways until early this year. The four point drop is the sharpest since April of 2005. [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| May 27 2008INSEE Biz Indicator is Weakening
- Global| May 23 2008
Belgian Bank Index Drops With Some Mixed Sectors
BNB index is a harbinger for the Euro Area. The BNB index plunged sharply in April and is moderately lower again in May. This month the NTC diffusion indexes for the Euro Area came out slightly ahead of the Belgian index and they [...]
- Global| May 23 2008
Here’s a Real FLASH: The Euro Area is Weak and Weakening
The chart is pretty clear. The table is pretty clear. The Euro Area is pretty certainly on a still-declining path - and that path is not showing any slowing. Growth is not contracting yet. But with the two main sector PMIs teetering [...]
- Global| May 22 2008
Confidence, Still Weak, Makes Sharp Jump
Italy’s economy continues to be under pressure. Confindustria, the employers association, is looking for GDP to drop in Q2. Prime Minter Berlusconi has offered selected tax cuts to try and stimulate the moribund economy. Retail sales [...]
- Global| May 21 2008
Germany’s IFO in Surprise Rise
Germany continues to show resilience even in the face of weak reports it has issued. Here is a reversal that fits in with the strong 2008-Q1 GDP that Germany reported. Not surprisingly this report also boosted the euro. Oddly with [...]
- Global| May 19 2008
BOF Industry Indicator Continues to Drop
The Bank of France indicator for industry stands near the bottom quartile of its two-year range and is beginning to break more decidedly lower (see chart). The production index is at a 2-Yr low. Overall order books are the weakest [...]
- Global| May 16 2008
Export Trends Are Faltering in Europe As Imports Sustain
European exports fell across the board in March as imports were steady. This plunged the trade balance back into deficit. Sequential growth rates are still upbeat with exports accelerating over 12-mo to 6-mo to 3-mo. But imports are [...]
- Global| May 14 2008
OECD Indicators Show Faltering Growth Prospects
The OECD composite leading indicators show abroad slowing in the OECD area. Only Japan is showing a rebound and that is because it had been much weaker in earlier months. The six month horizons on the bottom of the table shows the CLI [...]
- Global| May 12 2008
Italy’s Manufacturing Output Slips and EMU Tops Out
The quarter to date (which is now the completed 2008-Q1 period) shows still strong results for Italian output. But the monthly numbers reveal a different trend. The quarter’s lift stems totally from the spurt in output in January. [...]
- Global| May 12 2008
Japan's Economy Watcher's Index Turns Lower Again
After several months of firming on its various gauges the economy watchers index has dropped again in April. The drop takes the overall index to the bottom several percentile of its five year range and levels employment is the bottom [...]
- Global| May 09 2008
France: With Consumer and Intermediate Goods Output Weakening… Can Capital Goods Be Far Behind?
France remains a quintessential e-Zone economy. Its consumer sector has gone slack but capital goods output is still churning up a storm. Still capital goods is lagging sector. Its output can tend to stay strong as its industries turn [...]
- Global| May 08 2008
German Order Trends are Mostly Cycling Lower
German orders have taken some time to weaken since the euro began climbing strongly. Arguably it is now a plethora of factors that are dogging the trend including the strong euro but also the fallout from the financial turmoil and the [...]
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