Global| Aug 06 2008German MFG Orders Have Turned Horrifically Weak
Summary
Historically German foreign orders have been the more volatile of the two series (foreign and domestic orders for MFG goods). The current drop is a steep one indeed. The aggressive growth rates show that growth fore both domestic and [...]
Historically German foreign orders have been the more volatile
of the two series (foreign and domestic orders for MFG goods). The
current drop is a steep one indeed. The aggressive growth rates show
that growth fore both domestic and foreign orders is getting weaker as
the time period to calculated growth gets shorter. This is accelerating
weakness.
Quarter-to-date the growth rates are terribly weak. This
series is now complete for Q2. In Q2 total orders are falling at a
15.4% annual lead by a 21.3% drop in Foreign orders. Sales are falling
too as Consumer sales are off at an 11% pace even capital goods real
sales are off at a 5.8% annual rate in the quarter. The German
economy’s factory sector is weakening at a rapid pace.
| German Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real and SA | % M/M | % Saar | ||||||
| Jun-08 | May-08 | Apr-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | QTR-2-Date | |
| Total Orders | -2.9% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -21.7% | -11.5% | -8.4% | 16.9% | -15.4% |
| Foreign | -5.1% | 0.1% | -3.7% | -30.0% | -16.3% | -14.1% | 23.4% | -21.3% |
| Domestic | -0.6% | -2.8% | 0.3% | -11.9% | -6.1% | -1.7% | 10.2% | -8.8% |
| Real Sector Sales | ||||||||
| MFG/Mining | -0.6% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -7.7% | -3.9% | 2.1% | 5.9% | -7.2% |
| Consumer | -1.6% | 0.2% | -2.0% | -12.8% | -6.6% | -2.9% | 2.2% | -11.0% |
| Consumer Durables | 2.0% | -3.7% | 1.1% | -2.8% | -1.4% | -1.7% | 4.6% | -5.7% |
| Consumer Non-Durable | -2.2% | 1.1% | -2.6% | -14.0% | -7.2% | -3.1% | 1.7% | -11.8% |
| Capital Goods | 0.9% | -2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 7.3% | -5.8% |
| Intermediate Goods | -2.0% | 2.0% | -4.0% | -15.3% | -8.0% | 1.6% | 6.5% | -7.0% |
| All MFG-Sales | -0.7% | -0.5% | -1.0% | -8.4% | -4.3% | 1.5% | 5.8% | -7.7% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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