Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jul 30 2008

Japan’s Real Retail Sales Fall Sharply

Summary

Nominal retail sales fell by 0.2% in June as inflation pushed ahead driving real retail sales to a 0.7% drop. Inflation adjusted sales have been dropping at an increasingly rapid rate. But, Yr/Yr sales growth is still positive. In the [...]


Nominal retail sales fell by 0.2% in June as inflation pushed ahead driving real retail sales to a 0.7% drop. Inflation adjusted sales have been dropping at an increasingly rapid rate. But, Yr/Yr sales growth is still positive. In the quarter to date, real retail sales are falling at a 2.8% annual pace.

Japan shows signs of economic slippage as the authorities have been expressing more concerns. Japan’s Economics Minister Hiroko Ota said that weak job data reflected a stalling in Japan's economy. Government data showed that the jobless rate rose in June to a near two-year high of 4.1 percent and household spending fell again from a year earlier, in a sigh of further trouble for an economy already battered by surging energy costs and faced with slowing exports. Retail sales adjusted for inflation are another sign in this series of measures reminding us that Japan is facing severe challenges.

Japan Retail Sales Trends
Total Retail Sales Jun
08
May
08
Apr
08
3MO 6MO 12MO YrAgo QTR-to Date
Sales SA 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% -0.8%
Motor Vehicles -3.1% -3.2% 1.7% -17.0% -12.1% -0.7% -5.3% -13.0%
Food & Beverages -0.3% 2.3% -0.5% 6.0% 6.4% 3.6% -0.3% 5.1%
Fabrics & Apparel 2.2% -0.2% -2.5% -2.2% 4.9% -1.3% -4.8% -9.0%
Real Retail -0.7% -0.7% 0.2% -4.8% -2.4% -1.7% 0.7% -2.8%
Memo: CPI 0.7% 0.6% -0.3% 4.0% 2.6% 2.0% -0.1% 2.0%
  • Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media.   Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

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