The GfK consumer climate reading went dead flat in September at 9.7, stopping three straight months of decline and yet keeping intact a legacy of steady weakening from February 2019. There is even a broader though less steady state of [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
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Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Aug 28 2019German Consumer Climate Stabilizes: GfK
- Global| Aug 27 2019
French Manufacturing Improves While Services Run Flat
A one-month bounce amid trend confusion The French industry climate gauge for manufacturing may have bounced higher in August, but there is no sense in which climate is turning the corner and improving. It’s just a monthly wiggle that [...]
- Global| Aug 26 2019
German IFO Is Weakest Since 2012
The IFO climate gauge weakened in August, dropping to -1.4 points in diffusion terms (up responses minus down responses) after logging a net 1.2 point diffusion score in July. Since January 2015, this is the lowest reading. But on a [...]
- Global| Aug 23 2019
Globally Inflation Sinks As Japan's Inflation Languishes
Globally, inflation pressures continue to diminish. In Japan, inflation is creeping along at 0.5% over 12 months and at 0.6% excluding food and energy. Since 2001, U.S., EMU and Japanese inflation rates have remain large below 2%. In [...]
- Global| Aug 23 2019
Globally Inflation Sinks As Japan's Inflation Languishes
Globally, inflation pressures continue to diminish. In Japan, inflation is creeping along at 0.5% over 12 months and at 0.6% excluding food and energy. Since 2001, U.S., EMU and Japanese inflation rates have remain large below 2%. In [...]
- Global| Aug 22 2019
Some PMI Improvement But Not Much Change in Europe
EMU readings for August show a clear but minor sense of stabilization. The service sector reading that had been rising has slowed and is back to its June level. Manufacturing's PMI moved higher in August but still below its June [...]
- Global| Aug 21 2019
Spain's Trade Deficit Shrinks As Global Growth Sputters
Spain's trade deficit on goods transactions fell into a smaller deficit in June at -0.9 billion euros compared to -3.1 billion euros in June. Exports have had a pick-up in recent months while imports have languished and advanced at a [...]
- Global| Aug 20 2019
U.K. Orders: Considerable Recovery But Still Considerable Weakness
U.K. industrial orders, output and pricing show less weakness than the one-month lagged EU Commission metric or the Markit manufacturing metric. But ranked over a shorter span, since 2015, the U.K. data appear extremely weak and they [...]
- Global| Aug 19 2019
Japan's Trade Deficit Remains as Exports Sag
Japan's trade deficit came in at 127 billion yen in July, an enlargement from the 34 billion yen in June. Neither nominal exports nor imports show any clear patterns in the changes over 12 months, six months and three months. Nominal [...]
- Global| Aug 15 2019
U.K. Retail Sales Continue to Stand Up
Despite the risks, U.K. retail sales continue to expand Despite ongoing concerns over Brexit, a plunging pound sterling, and inflation that has risen above the BOE target, U.K. retail spending is holding up. There has even been some [...]
- Global| Aug 14 2019
A Global Economy Beyond the Repair of Crazy Glue
It starts with weak IP in Europe Industrial output in the EMU area has lost its way, falling by 1.6% in June, at a -5.2% annualized rate over three months and -2.4% over 12 months. It does manage a small (0.4% annualized) gain over [...]
- Global| Aug 13 2019
ZEW Momentum Shows Uniform Weakness
ZEW experts' macroeconomic expectations are being cut sharply again. This time the cut is from a much lower point (see Chart). The entire survey is a study in weakness as the table below shows. Its labeling is based upon month-to- [...]
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