The preliminary GDP results are in for early EMU GDP reporters. The results are not good. I have presented the Q/Q results as compounded growth rates as they are usually presented in the U.S. Europeans tend to report the simple Q/Q [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Jan 31 2020EMU GDP Disappoints in Q4 While the Virus Goes Viral
- Global| Jan 30 2020
EU Commission Indexes Begin Upturn for EMU--Can It Last?
The table below excerpts from the full list of EMU members where only 6 of 18 reporting countries show declines in their EU Commission indexes in January (month-to-month) compared with 8 in December and 7 in November. The EMU index is [...]
- Global| Jan 29 2020
German and Other EMU Consumer Confidence Strengthens
Germany's consumer confidence is projected to strengthen in February by the GfK survey as the climate gauge rises to 9.9 from 9.7 in January. The 9.9 reading is its strongest since June 2019 when it stood at 10.1. The top reading on [...]
- Global| Jan 28 2020
U.K. Distributive Trades Survey Points to Weakness
The retail CBI survey has solid signaling power for U.K. retail sales The small table below extracts the percentile standing metrics from the large table below to feature their message. The message is clearly that current retailing [...]
- Global| Jan 27 2020
IFO Expectations Are Set Back in January
IFO expectations fell to -5.2 in January from -3.1 in December when presented in its diffusion format. The expectations diffusion reading has an 11.6 percentile standing on data back to 1991 and has an ‘equally weak’ 10.2 percentile [...]
- Global| Jan 24 2020
EMU PMI- Thin Gruel for Progress; Will the Coronavirus Trump the Outlook for 2020?
The flash composites show some improvement this month- but not much of it. The EMU is dead flat unchanged month-to-month. The German index is higher while the French composite is weaker. However, the U.K. composite swings to expansion [...]
- Global| Jan 23 2020
Japan's Sector Indexes Show Weakness and a Loss of Momentum
Japan's indexes of industry level activity show a gain in the all-industry index in November. The rise in November to 103.9 from 103.0 in October is driven mostly by a rise in the tertiary sector (services) although there is also a [...]
- Global| Jan 22 2020
U.K. Industrial Optimism Makes a U-Turn for the Better
It is as though the CBI conducted its survey in Q4 and in Q1 in two different countries. The R-square linking the percentile standings in Q1 2020 to Q4 2019 has a value of 0.026, indicating that one quarter can explain about 2.5 [...]
- Global| Jan 21 2020
ZEW Assessments and Expectations Improve But Gain Less Markedly
The ZEW financial experts, out of 38 assessments, find that there is more strength in 32 of them. The sweep of the change in assessments is undeniably higher in January. The economic situation has four above 50 percentile standings [...]
- Global| Jan 21 2020
ZEW Experts See Improvement...But Is There Really That Much?
The ZEW financial experts, out of 38 assessments, find that there is more strength in 32 of them. The sweep of the change in assessments is undeniably higher in January. The economic situation has four above 50 percentile standings [...]
- Global| Jan 17 2020
Euro Area Trade Surplus Shrinks
The EMU current account surplus fell to 33.94 billion euros in November from 35.76 billion euros in October. Year-on-year the current account surplus is slightly larger and the November total is also above the 12-month average. The [...]
- Global| Jan 16 2020
German Inflation Begins to Look More 'Normal'
Germany's inflation, in fact, is not back to normal or even in the normal range…yet. Even if it were, the ECB mandate is to run policy off of the EMU-wide inflation situation, not the German situation. Germany does have the lowest [...]
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