U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in April
Summary
- 56.4 in April vs. 62.9 in March; widespread drops in index components.
- Production is at the lowest level since July 2020.
- Employment remains below 50, indicating contraction for five straight months.
- Price paid continues to be at an elevated level.
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer was at 56.4 in April, down from 62.9 in March but marginally up from 56.3 in February. The April reading was below the peak of 73.3 in May 2021 and 70.8 in April 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 62.0 for April. An index above 50 suggests expanding business activity in the Chicago area. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure remained at an expansion-level 57.3 in April, down modestly from 63.4 last month and 63.9 in April 2021.
The production index decreased to 50.9 in April, the lowest level since July 2020, from 60.0 in March. The new orders index fell to 51.1 from 61.9 as twenty-nine percent of respondents (NSA) reported higher orders but an increased 17% reported a drop. The employment index declined to 45.5 in April from 48.1 last month, remaining below the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line for five consecutive months and also below the recent high of 56.4 in October. A lessened 14% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while an increased 21% reported less hiring. The supplier deliveries index declined to 74.5, the lowest reading since February 2021, from 78.3. Fifty-five percent of respondents (NSA) reported slower product delivery speeds while only 7% reported faster delivery speeds. The orders backlog index slipped to 63.4 from 64.3. The inventories index declined slightly to 64.6 from 68.7, but up significantly from 46.6 in April 2021.
The prices paid index rebounded to an elevated-level 86.1 in April from 85.7 in March. Nevertheless, it was below October's high of 94.1 and 88.5 in April 2021.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey is collected online each month from manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms in the Chicago area. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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