U.S. Retail Sales Decline in January After Flat December
Summary
- Total retail sales -0.2% (+3.2% y/y) in Jan.; 0.0% (+2.4% y/y) in Dec.
- Ex-auto sales flat for a second month (+3.9% y/y); auto sales -0.9% (+0.1% y/y), third m/m fall in four months.
- Declines m/m: gasoline stations (-2.9%), clothing stores (-1.7%), sporting goods (-1.2%), electronics stores (-0.6%).
- Gains m/m: misc. stores (+2.0%), nonstore sales (+1.9%), furniture stores (+0.7%), bldg. materials (+0.6%).
Total retail sales fell an expected 0.2% in January after no change in December (unrevised) and a 0.5% rebound in November (+0.6% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to a subdued start to Q1 2026. A 0.2% m/m January decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate picked up to 3.2% in January from 2.4% in December (the lowest since September 2024); this compared with 4.5% in January 2025 and remained far below a high of 17.1% in February 2022 and a record-high 51.8% in April 2021.
Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales were virtually unchanged (+3.9% y/y) in January and December following six consecutive m/m gains. A 0.1% m/m January increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 0.9% (+0.1% y/y), down for the third time in four months, after a 0.2% December decline; this compared to an 8.9% drop (-3.8% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales after a 2.8% December increase.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose 0.3% (4.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months, after being unchanged in December. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials increased 0.2% (4.7% y/y), also up for the third time in four months, following December’s flat reading.
Sales by category showed mixed performance in January. To the downside, gasoline station sales dropped 2.9% (-3.7% y/y) in January after a 0.1% easing in December, marking the third m/m decline in four months and the largest since November 2023. Clothing & accessory store sales fell 1.7% (+3.0% y/y) after a 0.7% December decrease; sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales slid 1.2% (+3.2% y/y) following a 0.5% December slide; and electronics & appliance store sales declined 0.6% (+2.0% y/y) after 0.1% December downtick—all three series posted m/m increases in November and October.
To the upside, miscellaneous store sales rose 2.0% (10.8% y/y) in January, the fourth m/m rise in five months, after no change in December. Nonstore retail sales advanced 1.9% (10.9% y/y), the strongest of four straight m/m gains, after a 0.2% December increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales rebounded 0.7% (-3.5% y/y), the first m/m rise since October, after a 1.5% December decrease. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y), the third consecutive m/m gain, after a 1.2% December increase. General merchandise store sales were up 0.4% (1.5% y/y) in January after virtually unchanged in December and November; within this category, department store sales fell 6.0% (-8.3% y/y), the sharpest of three successive m/m falls, after a 3.9% December decline.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales dropped 3.0% (+2.9% y/y) in January on top of a 0.3% decrease in December, registering the deepest of four straight m/m declines and the fifth in six months. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (1.4% y/y) after a 0.3% December rebound.
Consumers appeared to dine out less frequently in January amid still-high inflation (January CPI +0.2% m/m, +2.4% y/y; core CPI +0.3% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 0.2% (+3.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m decline in four months, after falling at the same rate in December (-0.1% initially).
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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