U.S. Manufacturers Have Large 2.8% Increase in New Orders

Manufacturers’ orders rose 2.8% in September following a 1.0% increase in August, revised from 1.2% reported last month. The September result was stronger still than the Action Economics Forecast Survey projection of an already-sizable 1.9%. Durable goods industries reported a September surge of 4.6% after a marginal decrease of 0.1% in August. Nondurable goods industries had a 1.0% gain in September after 2.2% in August. Total orders excluding the transportation sector were up 0.8% in September after a 1.5% increase in August. Defense industry orders dropped 13.1% in September after an increase of 11.3% in August, and the total excluding defense increased 3.2% in September after a 0.8% rise in August.

Durable goods orders surged 4.6% in September after a 0.1% decrease in August. The main source of the sizable September gain in total durable goods orders was a 48.0% jump in nondefense aircraft and parts orders, which had fallen 21.2% in August. Orders for defense aircraft, by contrast, fell 15.2% after advancing 18.6% in August. Other durable goods industries had mixed orders in September, with fabricated metals orders increasing 0.8% while primary metals orders eased 0.3%. Orders for computers and electrical equipment both rose 1.0%, and motor vehicles and parts rose 0.6% and orders for ships and boats edged up 0.2%.

Nondurable goods orders – which equal shipments of nondurable goods – rose 1.0% in September after a 2.0% increase in August. The September increase again featured a notable increase in petroleum, up 3.1%, although this was markedly less than August’s 8.6% surge. Excluding petroleum, nondurable goods orders were up just 0.3% in September. There were sizable September increases in beverages, 1.8%, and textiles and printing, both up 0.9%. Orders for food rose 0.3%, chemicals and plastics & rubber rose 0.2% while paper and products were unchanged in September. There were declines in textile products, 1.0%, apparel 1.9% and leather, 1.1%.

Total shipments, including the 1.0% increase in nondurable goods, rose 0.4% in September after a 1.3% rise in August. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.3% in September after increasing 0.5% in August. The September decrease was largest in transportation equipment, -1.2%, with “miscellaneous” products, -0.7%; other decreases were in machinery, -0.5%, wood products, -0.3%, and nonmetallic mineral products, -0.1%. Shipments of primary metal products also fell 0.3% in September, their fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Unfilled orders increased 1.4% in September after a 0.3% rise in August. By definition, these are all in durable goods industries. The largest increase in September was also in the transportation sector, +2.1%, with other increases in electrical equipment, +0.6%, and primary metals, +0.3%. There were marginal increases in fabricated metals and computers, both +0.1%. Unfilled orders fell moderately in furniture, -0.5%, and machinery, -0.1%.

Inventories in total manufacturing increased 0.2% in September after a 0.3% rise in August. The were up just 0.1% in durable goods industries, marginally less than in August. In nondurable goods industries, inventories rose 0.4% in September, a slightly smaller increase than the 0.6% in August.

These manufacturing data, including more detailed industry breakdowns, are in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.