U.S. Import and Export Prices Unexpectedly Rose in August

Import prices unexpectedly increased 0.3% m/m (0.0% y/y) in August after a downwardly revised 0.2% m/m rise in July (previously 0.4% m/m), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.1% m/m decline had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Export prices also increased 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) in August following an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m increase in July (previously 0.1% m/m). The Action Economic Forecast Survey had also looked for a 0.1% m/m decline.

Note that these indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the price of goods before taxes. Tariffs are considered taxes and thus are excluded from these calculations.

For imports, fuel prices decreased 0.8% m/m in August following an increase of 2.4% m/m in July and an advance of 0.8% m/m in June. Lower prices for natural gas and petroleum drove the decrease. In August, prices for imported petroleum decreased 0.2% m/m and prices for imported natural gas fell 13.2%, the sixth consecutive monthly decline for the index. Imported fuel prices decreased 10.1% y/y in August.

Prices for nonfuel imports increased 0.4% m/m in August following no change in July. The August advance was the largest monthly increase since the index rose 0.6% in April 2024. Higher prices in August for consumer goods (0.7% m/m), nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (1.0% m/m), capital goods (0.5% m/m), and automotive vehicles (0.2% m/m) more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds, and beverages (-2.1% m/m). Nonfuel import prices increased 0.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Higher prices for nonagricultural exports drove the August increase in overall export prices. The price index for agricultural exports was unchanged in August (+5.1% y/y) following a 0.2% m/m decline in July. Higher prices for fruit offset lower prices for nuts and soybeans. Nonagricultural export prices increased 0.3% m/m in August, after rising 0.3% m/m in July and 0.6% m/m in June. Higher prices for consumer goods (0.6% m/m), nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (0.2% m/m), capital goods (0.2% m/m), and automotive vehicles (0.2% m/m) drove the increase. Nonagricultural export prices increased 3.2% from August 2024 to August 2025, the largest y/y increase since the index rose 3.9% for the year ended December 2022.

These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.