U.S. Import and Export Prices Jump in February, Exceeding Expectations
Summary
- Import prices +1.3% m/m (+1.3% y/y) in Feb., led by a 3.8% rebound in fuel import prices.
- Excluding fuels, import prices +1.1% m/m (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.8% Jan. increase.
- Export prices +1.5% m/m (+3.5% y/y), driven by a 1.7% gain in nonagricultural exp. prices.
Import prices rose a more-than-expected 1.3% m/m in February, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, after upwardly revised rises of 0.6% in January (+0.2% initially) and 0.1% in December (+0.2% previously), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 1.3% in February, the highest since February 2025, from 0.3% in January. Export prices advanced a higher-than-expected 1.5% m/m in February, the fastest monthly pace since May 2022, after unrevised increases of 0.6% in both January and December. The y/y rate quickened to 3.5% in February, the highest since September, from 2.6% in January (2.7% in February 2025). The Action Economics Forecast survey had expected m/m rises of 0.4% in import prices and 0.5% in export prices for February. (Note: Import and export price indexes are not directly affected by tariffs because they measure the prices of goods before taxes. Tariffs are classified as taxes and therefore are excluded from these calculations. October 2025 data were unavailable due to the U.S. federal government shutdown.)
The m/m rise in February import prices reflected a 3.8% rebound (-10.6% y/y) in imported fuel prices after a 1.2% decline in January (-2.2% initially). The fuel price rebound was led by a 24.7% jump (+57.9% y/y) in natural gas, followed by rises of 6.3% (-6.2% y/y) in other petroleum products, 4.6% (-10.5% y/y) in fuel oil, 3.1% (-21.3% y/y) in liquefied petroleum gases, 2.5% (-14.8% y/y) in petroleum & petroleum products, and 1.1% (-17.4% y/y) in crude oil. Nonfuel import prices rose 1.1% (2.5% y/y) in February after a 0.8% increase in January (+0.5% initially). Import prices for the following categories all rose m/m in February: nonfuel industrial supplies & materials (+2.6%; +9.6% y/y), capital goods (+1.3%; +3.9% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.8%; -3.4% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.5%; +0.6% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.2%; -0.9% y/y).
The February advance in export prices reflected m/m gains in both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices. Agricultural export prices rose 0.7% (2.2% y/y) in February, the fourth m/m rise in five months, on top of a 0.2% increase in January (unrevised). Nongricultural export prices climbed 1.7% (3.8% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January and December. Export prices for industrial supplies & materials (+3.5%; +4.4% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (+0.9%; +2.8% y/y), consumer goods excluding autos (+0.7%; +4.0% y/y), capital goods (+0.2%; +3.0% y/y), and automotive vehicles & parts (+0.1%; +2.6% y/y) all increased m/m in February.
These import and export price series are not seasonally adjusted; they can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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