U.S. Import and Export Prices Fell in November
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Decline in import prices due entirely to 5.6% drop in price of imported fuels.
- For exports, lower nonag prices more than offset higher ag prices.
Import prices for all goods fell 0.4% m/m (-1.4% y/y) in November following an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m decline in October (previously -0.8% m/m), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Exported goods prices fell 0.9% m/m (-5.2% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m fall in October (previously -1.1% m/m). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.7% monthly decline in both import and export prices.
The decline in import prices in November was due entirely to a 5.6% m/m drop in prices of import fuels, their second consecutive monthly decline after four monthly increases. Lower petroleum prices in November more than offset higher natural gas prices. By contrast, prices of nonfuel imports increased 0.2% m/m (-0.4% y/y), their first monthly increase in six months. Food prices rose 0.9 m/m, their first increase in three months. Auto prices edged down 0.1% m/m while prices of capital goods and of consumer goods ex autos were unchanged.
The decline in export prices in November reflected a 0.2% m/m (-10.5% y/y) gain in agricultural prices that was more than offset by a 1.0% m/m (-4.5% y/y) fall in nonagricultural prices. In particular, prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (-2.2% m/m) due in most part to lower fuel prices, capital goods (-0.1% m/m), consumer goods ex autos (-0.2% m/m), and automotive vehicles (-0.1% m/m) each fell in November while prices of nonagricultural food rose (+0.3% m/m).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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