U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Narrows in June
Summary
- Deficit: $85.99 bil. in June, smaller than $96.42 in May.
- Exports -0.6%, down for the second straight month, led by an 8.1% decline in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports -4.2%, down for the fourth month in five, led by a 12.4% drop in nonauto consumer goods imports.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly narrowed to $85.99 billion in June after widening to $96.42 billion in May, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The June reading, the second narrowing in the goods trade deficit in three months, was smaller than a $98.81 billion shortfall in June 2024. A deficit of $98.0 billion for June had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a record $161.95 billion in March. In Q2'25, the goods trade deficit narrowed to $268.31 billion, the smallest since Q4'23, after ballooning to a record $465.03 billion in Q1'25; the monthly deficit averaged $89.44 billion in Q2'25, down from a record $155.01 billion in Q1'25.
Total goods exports fell 0.6% m/m (+3.6% y/y) to $178.16 billion in June, the lowest level since February, following a 5.7% drop to $179.26 billion in May and four straight m/m increases. April registered a record high of $190.08 billion. Exports had fallen 2.0% since a July 2022 high. The fall in exports in June was led by an 8.1% decrease (-0.04% y/y) in exports of industrial supplies & materials. To the upside, exports for the following end-use categories rose m/m in June: other goods (5.5%; 22.8% y/y), capital goods excluding autos (4.7%; 11.0% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (4.0%; 1.3% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (1.6%; -15.8% y/y), and nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (1.5%; 3.5% y/y).
Total goods imports slid 4.2% m/m (-2.5% y/y), the fourth monthly slide in five months, to $264.15 billion in June, the lowest level since March 2024, following a 0.1% downtick to $275.68 billion in May. March registered a record high of $344.59 billion. Imports had fallen 8.6% since a March 2022 high. The slide in imports in June reflected m/m declines in most imports end-use categories. These included drops of 12.4% (-13.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 5.5% (-12.6% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 2.0% (-10.6% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 1.3% (+11.8% y/y) in other goods, and 1.1% (+4.2% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. In contrast, imports of capital goods excluding autos, the only end-use category with a monthly increase in June, rose 0.6% (13.9% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, on top of a 0.3% May rebound.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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