U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows As Expected in December
Summary
- $88.46 billion deficit in December, a three-month low, matching expectations.
- Exports gain 2.5% following two straight m/m declines.
- Imports rebound 1.3%, the third m/m increase in four months.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $88.46 billion in December from $89.33 billion in November, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the second successive month that the goods deficit had narrowed. The December deficit was the smallest in three months and smaller than a $91.08 billion shortfall in December 2022. The latest reading matched the forecast of a $88.5 billion deficit by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $121.18 billion in March 2022. In Q4'23, the goods trade deficit widened to $267.46 billion after narrowing to $262.49 billion in Q3'23. The goods trade deficit added 0.26%-point to real GDP growth in Q4'23 after having subtracted 0.09%-point in Q3'23.
Total exports increased 2.5% m/m (1.0% y/y) in December, the first m/m gain since September, following a 3.2% decline in November. However, exports had fallen 6.1% since a July 2022 high. The increase in exports in December reflected exports m/m rises of 6.3% (11.3% y/y) in other goods, 4.9% (-2.6% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 4.8% (-2.6% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 4.1% (7.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. In contrast, exports of automotive vehicles & parts slid 3.3% (-4.0% y/y) in December, the third consecutive m/m slide; exports of capital goods excluding autos fell 0.5% (+4.5% y/y), the first m/m fall since May 2023.
Total imports rose 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in December, the third monthly rise in four months, after a 2.3% drop in November. Nevertheless, imports had fallen 10.8% since a March 2022 high. The rise in imports in December reflected imports m/m increases of 5.4% (-0.9% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 1.8% (-7.1% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, and 1.0% (6.1% y/y) in other goods. To the downside, the following imports fell m/m in December: automotive vehicles & parts (-1.1%, the fourth m/m drop in five months; +10.2% y/y), capital goods excluding autos (-0.8%, the second successive m/m decline; -0.1% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-0.4%, the first m/m drop since September; -0.6% y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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