U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Balloons Further in August
Summary
- Deficit: $132.6 bil. in August, up $13.7 bil. (+11.5%) from July’s $118.9 bil., pointing to a significant drag on Q3’26 GDP growth.
- Exports +1.9%, first m/m gain since April, driven by an 8.3% rebound in industrial supplies & materials exports; nonauto consumer goods exports down 10.5%.
- Imports +5.5%, sixth rise in seven mths. to highest level since Mar. ’25, with m/m increases in all end-use categories except nonauto consumer goods imports (-1.6%).
The U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly widened to $132.64 billion in August, the largest since March 2025, from $118.94 billion in July and $101.05 billion in June, the advance estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, pointing to a significant drag on GDP growth in Q3 2026. The August reading marked the third widening in the goods trade deficit in four months, exceeding an $85.16 billion shortfall in August 2025. A deficit of $113.9 billion for August had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a low of $61.44 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since February 2020) and a record high of $158.73 billion in March 2025.
Total goods exports rose 1.9% m/m (14.5% y/y) to $203.42 billion in August, the first m/m gain since April, after a 2.9% decline to a six-month low of $199.69 billion in July. A record high of $220.11 billion was reached in April. Exports were up 25.1% from a June 2023 low. The m/m rise in exports in August was led by an 8.3% rebound (30.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, followed by increases of 7.3% (14.8% y/y) in other goods and 2.0% (11.5% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the downside, exports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (-10.5%; -4.1% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (-6.9%; -1.9% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-5.6%; +4.5% y/y) fell m/m in August.
Total goods imports advanced 5.5% m/m (27.9% y/y) to $336.05 billion in August on top of a 3.9% rebound to $318.63 billion in July, marking the sixth monthly rise in seven months and the highest level since March 2025’s record high of $340.11 billion. Imports were up 34.0% from a March 2023 low. The m/m increase in imports in August reflected gains in almost all imports end-use categories, led by an 18.7% recovery (19.7% y/y) in other goods, followed by rises of 16.6% (27.0% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 5.5% (9.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 4.0% (57.2% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 0.9% (3.2% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts. In contrast, imports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, the only end-use category with a monthly decline in August, fell 1.6% (+2.5% y/y), the second m/m fall in three months, reversing a 0.5% July increase.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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