U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Moderately in March as Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Aircraft orders continue to fuel order levels.
- Excluding transportation, orders remain little changed.
- Durable goods shipments & inventories hold steady; backlogs rise.
New orders for durable goods increased 2.6% (1.3% y/y) during March after rising 0.7% in February, revised from 1.4%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 3.0% rise.
The March gain in new orders reflected a 23.7% rise in aircraft orders after they increased 13.9% in February. Transportation sector orders overall increased 7.7% (1.9% y/y) after rising 1.8% in February as motor vehicle orders gained 2.1% (2.9% y/y, about as they did in February.
Most other durable goods categories posted minimal orders changes last month. Machinery orders rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y), after increasing 1.5% in February. Orders for primary metals slipped 0.5% (-1.6% y/y) and orders for fabricated metals products rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic equipment improved 0.8% (1.8% y/y) while orders for electrical equipment edged 0.1% higher (-0.3% y/y) following a 2.8% February decline.
These industry changes in orders accompanied a 6.0% rise (1.4% y/y) in capital goods orders after a 0.3% February gain. Nondefense capital goods orders rose 5.4% (2.7% y/y) while nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) in March after a modest increase of 0.4% in February. Defense capital goods orders surged 10.6% (-6.2% y/y) following a 13.9% decline in February.
Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 0.4% (1.6% y/y) in March after increasing 1.5% in February. Shipments of durable goods held steady (+1.0% y/y) in March after rising 1.2% in February. Nondurable goods shipments improved 0.7% in March (2.3% y/y) after increasing 1.8% in February.
Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.4% (9.1% y/y) after easing 0.1% in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders edged down 0.1% (-1.0% y/y) in March as they did in February. They’ve been edging lower since late-2022.
Manufacturers’ inventories increased 0.1% (0.6% y/y) in March after gaining 0.2% in the prior month. Durable goods inventories held steady (+2.2% y/y) following a 0.2% February increase. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.2% (-1.7%) in March after a 0.3% February increase.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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