Jobless Claims Edge Down 3,000
Summary
- Initial claims slightly lower than forecast.
- Insured unemployment down 37,000 in latest week.
- Insured unemployment rate maintains recent range of 1.1%-1.2%.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 3,000 in the February 18 week to 192,000, seasonally adjusted, down 3.0% from a year ago. The February 11 week’s total was 195,000, revised up slightly from 194,000 reported a week ago. The latest result was somewhat lower than the Action Economics Forecast Survey consensus of 197,000. Over the last four weeks, initial claims averaged 191,250, up from the 189,750 in the four weeks ended February 11.
In the week ended February 11, insured unemployment – also called “continued weeks claimed” – was 1.654 million, down from 1.691 million the week before and up 21,000 from 1.633 million in the comparable week of 2022, or 1.3%. The four-week moving average in the February 11 week was 1.669 million, down from 1.672 million the week before.
The insured unemployment rate ticked down to 1.1% in the February 11 week from 1.2% in the prior two weeks and also in the year-ago week. The rate has hovered between 1.1% and 1.2% since mid-November and also prevailed during the last several months of 2019, that is, just prior to the onset of the COVID pandemic.
In the week ended February 4, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs rose 1.3% to 1.979 million (-2.7% y/y) from 1.954 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation were last included in the main Labor Department press release at the end of December 2022
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely across the various states. For the week ended February 4, the highest rates are in New Jersey (2.7%), Rhode Island (2.51%), Minnesota (2.4%), California (2.33%), and Massachusetts (2.29%). The lowest rates for that week were in Virginia (0.32%), Alabama (0.36%), Florida (0.41%), Kansas (0.43%), and North Carolina (0.44%). Rates among other sizable states include Texas (0.95%), Pennsylvania (1.80%), New York (1.94%) and Illinois (1.95%).
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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