FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Trend Upward
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Crude oil prices surge.
- Gain in metals price paced by aluminum & copper.
- Rubber & lumber costs rise.
- Cotton prices move lower.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.4% (1.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended April 5, 2024, adding to increases since a price low in the third week of December. The index remained 20.0% below the cycle peak in the second week of March 2022. During most of that period of time, U.S. factory output has been little-changed.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group rose 2.7% (4.4% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 7.5% in four weeks to $84.87 per barrel, up 6.6% y/y. Prices hit a low of $70.42 in the third week of December. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, held steady (+10.6% y/y) in four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.0% (0.8% y/y) in the latest four-week period.
Metals group prices increased 2.6% (-4.5% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Copper scrap prices increased 5.5% (0.3% y/y) in the last four weeks while aluminum prices improved 5.8%, but slipped 0.6% y/y. Tin prices rose 4.4% in four weeks and strengthened 9.6% y/y. The cost of steel scrap rose 2.0% (-12.9% y/y) while zinc prices improved 0.7% (-15.2% y/y). Working lower, lead prices were off 2.2% (-5.7% y/y) in four weeks.
Prices in the miscellaneous group increased 1.8% during the last four weeks and strengthened 4.4% y/y. Rubber prices improved 7.1% and by 46.2% y/y. The cost of framing lumber rose 1.8% in four weeks (3.4% y/y).
Working lower, textile group prices declined 1.0% (+1.4% y/y) in the latest four weeks but had been rising since their low in the second week of November. Cotton prices decreased 7.7% (+4.6% y/y) in the last four weeks while the cost of burlap rose 2.2% (6.6% y/y) in four weeks.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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