Chicago Fed National Activity Index Turns Positive in April
Summary
- CFNAI +0.14 in April, highest since March ’25; -0.15 in March.
- Two of four CFNAI components up m/m; two make positive contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 edges up to +0.03, third straight positive reading; above -0.70 (recession signal).
- CFNAI Diffusion Index rises to +0.06, highest since Oct. ’22.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.14 in April from -0.15 in March (-0.20 initially) and +0.09 in February (+0.03 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed, indicating economic growth increased to its highest level since March 2025. The April CFNAI marked the third positive reading in four months and the first m/m rise since January; it was above a low of -0.49 in October 2025 and a reading of -0.36 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.39 in February 2025.
The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, inched up to +0.03 in April from +0.02 in March (-0.03 initially), marking the third consecutive positive reading following nine straight negative figures. However, it was slightly below +0.06 in April 2025 and a high of +0.07 in February 2025. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, the April reading confirmed that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.
The April reading reflected m/m increases in two of the four CFNAI key components and two positive contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index to the CFNAI rose to +0.18 in April, the highest reading since February 2025, from -0.13 in March; it was above -0.11 in April 2025 and a low of -0.61 in January 2024. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index increased to +0.02 in April, the fourth positive reading in five months, from -0.03 in March; it was above its recent low of -0.17 in September 2025 and a low of -0.20 in April 2025. Meanwhile, the Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.02 in April, down from a neutral value (0.00) in March but marginally above -0.03 in April 2025. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index fell to -0.04 in April, a three-month low, from 0.00 in March; it was below -0.03 in April 2025 and a high of +0.10 in March 2025.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index—which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average—improved to +0.06 in April, the highest reading since October 2022, following +0.03 in March (-0.04 initially) and negative readings during the March 2023 to February 2026 period. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The April reading was above a low of -0.55 in October 2025 and -0.13 in April 2025 but below a high of +0.14 in September 2022.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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