U.S. Industrial Production Up Slightly in June; Manufacturing Flat
Summary
- June IP +0.1% (+1.1% y/y), fourth m/m increase in five months.
- Manufacturing unchanged (+1.1% y/y), w/ durables -0.1% and nondurables +0.2%.
- Selected high-tech +0.5%, eighth gain in nine mths.; motor vehicles +0.7%, sixth rise in seven mths.
- Mining +0.4% (+2.4% y/y), third consecutive m/m increase.
- Utilities +0.4% (+0.3% y/y), led by a 0.9% rebound in electric utilities output.
- Key categories in market groups post mixed results.
- Capacity utilization steady at 76.1%; mfg. capacity utilization marginally down to 75.7%.
Industrial production (IP) edged up a slightly less-than-expected 0.1% m/m in June, the fourth monthly gain in five months, following a 0.1% increase in May (unrevised) and a downwardly revised 0.8% rise in April (+0.9% previously), according to data from the Federal Reserve Board. A 0.2% m/m June increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 1.1% in June, the lowest since March, from 1.7% in May (0.7% in June 2025). The June IP index at 102.6 was 3.3% above a low of 99.3 in November 2024 and 3.4% above a low of 99.2 in January 2024. IP rose 1.0% q/q in Q2 2026 after a 0.3% q/q rebound in Q1 2026, rising at a 4.0% annualized rate following a 1.1% Q1’26 annualized pace.
By industry groups, manufacturing production was virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in June after increases of 0.1% in May (0.0% initially) and 0.7% in April (unrevised). Durable goods production dipped 0.1% (+3.2% y/y) in June, the first m/m easing since March, following a 1.0% rise in May. Within durables, most categories fell m/m in June, led by a 0.8% drop (-1.1% y/y) in wood products, followed by declines of 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) in machinery, 0.6% (+5.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.6% (+3.3% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.2% (+5.0% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 0.2% (+2.1% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.2% (+1.9% y/y) in miscellaneous durable goods. To the upside, the following durable goods categories rose m/m in June, including output rises of 0.7% (1.2% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 0.3% (-5.0% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.2% (1.5% y/y) in primary metals, and 0.1% (9.2% y/y) in computer & electronic products. Notably, aircraft & parts production climbed 0.3% (9.1% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 1.0% May increase.
Nondurable goods production rose 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) in June, the fourth m/m gain in five months, following a 0.9% decrease in May. The June output rise was led by a 2.1% rebound (-0.9% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, followed by increases of 1.9% (2.1% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.4% (-1.9% y/y) in printing & related support activities, 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco, and 0.1% (0.7% y/y) in plastics & rubber products. To the downside, the following nondurable goods categories fell m/m in June, including output declines of 0.4% (-4.6% y/y) in paper, 0.3% (-4.7% y/y) in textiles & product mills, and 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) in chemicals.
Mining activity grew 0.4% (2.4% y/y) in June, the third successive m/m gain and the fourth in five months, after a 1.1% increase in May (+1.3% initially). Utilities output, up for the second time in three months, rose 0.4% (0.3% y/y) following a 0.7% May decline (-0.4% initially), reflecting a 0.9% rebound (1.3% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 3.3% decline (-6.7% y/y) in natural gas utilities output.
By market groups, consumer goods output rebounded 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) in June after a 0.6% decline in May, reflecting gains of 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods. Materials production inched up 0.1% (1.3% y/y), the fourth m/m increase in five months, after a 0.3% May rise. In contrast, business equipment output fell 0.4% (+5.4% y/y), the first m/m fall since March, following a 0.9% May gain. Construction supplies production slid 0.4% (+1.5% y/y), the second m/m decline in three months, after a 1.0% May increase.
In special classifications, factory output of selected high-tech industries rose 0.5% (11.0% y/y) in June on top of a 1.8% advance in May, marking the third consecutive m/m gain and the eighth in nine months. Manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries held steady m/m (+0.8% y/y) in June after four straight m/m gains, while manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts dipped 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) for the second successive month.
Capacity utilization held at 76.1% for the third consecutive month in June (with May’s reading revised down from 76.2%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey forecasted 76.2%. The June reading was 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization slipped to 75.7% in June from an upwardly revised 75.8% in May (the highest since September 2025; 75.7% initially). The June rate was 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.
Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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