Global| May 26 2021State Coincident Indexes in April
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Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in April show widespread dispersion of activity. In the three months ending in April the indexes for 49 states increased (Delaware again inched down). 15 states, [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in April show widespread dispersion of activity. In the three months ending in April the indexes for 49 states increased (Delaware again inched down). 15 states, scattered across the nation, (Hawaii and New Hampshire were in this group) showed gains in excess of 2 percent, with West Virginia up a remarkable 8.2 percent and Hawaii's index up 6.6 percent. California and New York were other members of the higher-growing group. In contrast, 15 states (including Delaware) clocked increases of less than 1 percent. Florida had the smallest gain of any of the very large states, up only .5 percent in this period.
A surprise were the figures on 12-month changes. April 2020 was the low point of the pandemic, and, as would be expected, 43 states report double-digit gains in their coincident indexes (Michigan up more than 70 percent; West Virginia was nearly as strong). What was surprising that Connecticut registered a gain of less than 1 percent, and Texas rose a fairly modest 7.1 percent. The national figure was up only 8.9 percent, which seems quite low compared to the individual state numbers (New York, California, and Florida were all up more than 20 percent).
The one-month changes from March to April were also dispersed. Four states—including Pennsylvania and Florida--saw declines, while West Virginia and Hawaii (two states one rarely groups together) each rose 2.3 percent.
The upshot appears to be that erratic patterns of recovery and growth could prevail for a while, given idiosyncratic responses of industries and states to the ebbing of the pandemic. For instance, the surge in Hawaii is obviously related to renewed travel and leisure activity—but Nevada appears to be growing substantially more slowly, and tourism would have much less to do with the recent surge in West Virginia. On the other side, Connecticut's weakness in the 3- and 12-month growth numbers (the Nutmeg State reported a decent rise in April) stands in contrast to a fair amount of strength in neighboring states.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.