Global| Apr 25 2019State Coincident Indexes
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity show more idiosyncratic than regional variation; in other words, there isn't a simple picture that the West is outstripping the East. Over the 12 months [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity show more idiosyncratic than regional variation; in other words, there isn't a simple picture that the West is outstripping the East. Over the 12 months ending in March, Nevada—which has seen the most rapid rate of job growth of any state—registered a 5.2 percent increase in its coincident index. Three eastern states (Delaware, Massachusetts, and West Virginia) filled slots 2 to 4, before another western state (South Dakota) shows up in the rankings. 31 states clocked gains between 2 and 4 percent, while Hawaii was the only one with a drop.
Over the 3 months ending in March Delaware was the leader, with an increase slightly above 1.5 percent (Wisconsin's rise was virtually equal). Nine states—scattered across the nation—saw gains higher than 1 percent in that period, with six clocking declines. Kansas came in last with a plunge of .8 percent. If the range .5 to 1 percent is seen as corresponding to reasonably steady, solid growth, only 19 states were there (Texas is in that group, but California, Florida, and New York were all lower).
As to February-March, there was, as is fairly typical for one-month's growth, a pretty wide range, with Wyoming's .8 percent increase leading. Eight states report declines, with Kansas down a sharp .4 percent.
The Philadelphia indexes are largely reflective of the data state payrolls, average manufacturing hours, unemployment rates, and real wages and salaries. The long-term trend in a state's index is set to match that in the state's real GDP.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.