Global| Nov 21 2003US Dollar At Seven Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The foreign exchange value of the US dollar versus major currencies fell yesterday to the lowest level since late 1996 (-15.1% y/y). Roughly 50% of US foreign trade is with the countries in the major currency index. Against a broader [...]
The foreign exchange value of the US dollar versus major currencies fell yesterday to the lowest level since late 1996 (-15.1% y/y). Roughly 50% of US foreign trade is with the countries in the major currency index.
Against a broader basket of currencies, the US dollar has fallen a lesser 8.3% y/y. Over 40% of US foreign trade is with Mexico, China and other Asian countries. Against these countries the US$ has been relatively stable, or up versus the peso.
The dollar's value has been notably weak versus the Euro which is up 19.1% y/y. The dollar also has weakened notably versus the yen as signs of Japanese economic improvement have emerged.
Versus the UK pound, the dollar's decline recently has picked up steam losing 6.7% in just the last three months. UK economic growth has improved and inflation has been stable.
Against the Canadian dollar the US currency has fallen out of bed, down 17.3% y/y.
Exchange rate forecasting is discussed in this Federal Reserve Board International Finance Discussion Paper that could be found here.
| Exchange Rates | 11/20/03 | 12/31/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
| US$ Major Currency Index (3/73=100) | 85.15 | 97.65 | -15.1% | 103.08 | 104.26 | 98.42 |
| Japan (Yen/US$) | 108.99 | 118.75 | -11.3% | 125.22 | 121.57 | 107.80 |
| European Monetary Union (US$/Euro) | 1.1895 | 1.0485 | 19.1% | 0.9454 | 0.8952 | 0.9232 |
| United Kingdom (US$/Pound) | 1.7024 | 1.6095 | 8.1% | 1.5025 | 1.4396 | 1.5156 |
| Exchange Rates | 11/20/03 | 12/31/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US$ Major Currency Index (3/73=100) | 85.15 | 97.65 | -15.1% | 103.08 | 104.26 | 98.42 |
| Japan (Yen/US$) | 108.99 | 118.75 | -11.3% | 125.22 | 121.57 | 107.80 |
| European Monetary Union (US$/Euro) | 1.1895 | 1.0485 | 19.1% | 0.9454 | 0.8952 | 0.9232 |
| United Kingdom (US$/Pound) | 1.7024 | 1.6095 | 8.1% | 1.5025 | 1.4396 | 1.5156 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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