Global| Nov 18 2004Unemployment Rates Down in Hong Kong & Sweden
Summary
Hesitant improvement are evident in labor market conditions reported today by two widely disparate areas, Hong Kong and Sweden. Both have undergone economic "adjustments" over the last couple years, but it now looks that both are [...]
Hesitant improvement are evident in labor market conditions reported today by two widely disparate areas, Hong Kong and Sweden. Both have undergone economic "adjustments" over the last couple years, but it now looks that both are starting to turn around.
This is clearer in Hong Kong, where employment growth in the three months ended in October is a notable 2.8% above year-earlier levels. Month-to-month moves, even in this moving average series, are fairly irregular, but the longer trend looks favorable, especially after two years of contraction in 2002 and 2003. The unemployment rate is falling too, reaching 6.7% in the October period, down from a peak of 8.6% in mid-2003 and the lowest since early 2002.
In Sweden, the employment figures are not so buoyant, still on the downside compared with a year ago, but the decline now seems to be occurring more gradually. More hopeful is a reduction in the unemployment rate, which fell below 5% for the first time in 14 months and well off its high of 6.0% in February and much higher levels in prior years.
For both regions, the price of energy remains a wildcard as a potential block to further progress. As in the US, fuel prices for both transportation and heating have climbed sharply. Thus it remains to be seen if these recently better labor force developments will continue or be constrained by ballooning energy budgets.
| Labor Force Data | Oct 2004 | Sept 2004 | Aug 2004 | Year Ago | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong Employment (3-mo Avg, Mil., SA) |
3.30 | 3.28 | 3.30 | 3.21 | 3.22 | 3.23 | 3.25 |
| % Chg | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 2.8 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 1.4 |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 |
| Underemployment Rate | |||||||
| Sweden Employment (Mil., NSA) |
4.20 | 4.20 | 4.27 | 4.22 | 4.23 | 4.24 | 4.24 |
| % Chg | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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