Global| Sep 09 2005UK Trade Balance Widens in July, Offsetting June Drop
Summary
The trade deficit in the UK widened anew in July, according to data reported today by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). After a jump in exports lowered the June deficit to -£2.21 billion, the July deficit was -£3.43 billion, [...]
The trade deficit in the UK widened anew in July, according to data reported today by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). After a jump in exports lowered the June deficit to -£2.21 billion, the July deficit was -£3.43 billion, almost the same as in May. Exports were up 5.5% in June, then dropped back by 3.9% in July. Imports rose 0.5% in each month, almost completely accounted for by fuel imports.
The June gain in exports was in most kinds of goods and services and was mirrored by similar-sized reductions in July. This swing took place in trade with non-EU countries, especially the US, Japan and non-OECD countries. Exports to the EU-25 nations have been fairly stable for the last several months. 
We also note a modest deterioration in the UK's trade balance in fuel. This is not recent, but occurred during 2004 when there was a marked rise in fuel imports. The value of fuel exports has also risen, but due only to the uptrend in prices. The volume of exports is decreasing, while that of imports rose markedly going into this year and has oscillated widely during 2005. The impact on import values is greater because import prices for fuel have been rising noticeably faster than export prices. Two-way trade in crude oil (the SUM of exports and imports of crude), measured in tonnes, has been largely constant at 9.5-10 million tonnes since at least 2002, despite the large changes in prices.
| UK Trade, SA, Bil.£ | July 2005 | June 2005 | May 2005 | July 2004 | Monthly Averages|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |||||
| Trade Balance: Goods & Services | -3.43 | -2.21 | -3.48 | -3.85 | -3.34 | -2.58 | -2.63 |
| Exports | 25.93 | 27.00 | 25.59 | 24.10 | 24.17 | 23.52 | 22.91 |
| Imports | 29.36 | 29.20 | 29.06 | 27.95 | 27.51 | 26.10 | 25.54 |
| Fuels | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.03 | 0.10 | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| Exports | 2.08 | 1.85 | 1.84 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Imports | 1.99 | 1.84 | 1.74 | 1.53 | 1.40 | 0.96 | 0.80 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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