Global| Oct 21 2004UK Retail Sales Strong in September, But Trend Moderates
Summary
Retail sales in the UK bounced in September, surging by 1.0% in volume terms from August, and growing 6.8% from a year ago. The strength was in household goods, "other" non-food stores (which would include car dealers and a myriad of [...]
Retail sales in the UK bounced in September, surging by 1.0% in volume terms from August, and growing 6.8% from a year ago.
The strength was in household goods, "other" non-food stores (which would include car dealers and a myriad of other kinds of stores) and non-stores (i.e., on-line and mail order sales). Food stores had moderate 0.6% growth in the month and textiles and clothing were up 0.4%. Among the published store groupings, the only decline was in "non-specialized stores", where sales were down 1.0%.
In several of the categories, sales had moved markedly in the opposite direction in August. To smooth what is likely transitory volatility, the UK's Office of National Statistics tries to encourage data users to focus on three-month averages. We can look at their behavior using the Excel mode of DLXVG3 to make a spreadsheet to calculate percent changes in three-month moving averages. This reveals that the gain of 1.1% in the three months to September over the prior three months actually follows larger three-month moves in August and July, so the trend in sales may actually be slowing. Among selected categories of retailers, non-stores, which were so strong in September alone, turn out to be down on the three-month period by 1.0%. Household goods outlets, however, are maintaining their strength, up 3.3% in the latest three-month period, continuing a similar pace that yielded 3.6% in August and 3.1% in July. Thus, while total sales may be moderating a bit, British consumers continue to spend with some vigor.
| % Changes, Selected Store Types | Sept 2004* | Aug 2004* | Jul 2004* | Year-Ago | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| 3-Month Average | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | ||||
| Food | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Textiles | 0.4 | 3.3 | -1.8 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| Non-Stores | 3.1 | -2.0 | -2.2 | 13.3 | -5.4 | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| 3-Month Average | -1.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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