Global| Nov 20 2003UK Retail Sales Resume Firm Growth
Summary
October retail sales in the UK picked up further from recent months, establishing a distinct uptrend after a pause last winter. Total retail sales in volume terms rose at a 6.2% annual rate in the three months ended October, stronger [...]
October retail sales in the UK picked up further from recent months, establishing a distinct uptrend after a pause last winter. Total retail sales in volume terms rose at a 6.2% annual rate in the three months ended October, stronger than the summer's 5.2% and much firmer than last winter's nearly flat 0.3%.
Both food and non-food stores have gained strength in recent months, with non-food clearly in the lead. Within that sector, the advances have rotated among groups. "Other", which would encompass books, gifts, jewelry, sporting goods and miscellaneous items have most recently been the strongest, up at a 10.5% annual pace in the latest three months Clothing stores have the largest year-on-year increase, 7.5%. So-called "non-specialized" stores have had less buoyant sales, while those at non-stores, that is mail order and Internet buying, have been falling rather markedly.
Thus, UK consumers seem to be selective in their buying and have seen the novelty of shopping from home fade somewhat. Even so, demand is growing firmly and has already contributed to the Bank of England's decision earlier this month to raise its "repo rate" from 3.5% to 3.75%. The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee indicated that, among other factors in their decision, they had expected household spending to be slower than has developed in these last several months.
| 3-Month % Change (Annualized) December/December | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Volume | Oct 2003 | July 2003 | April 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
| All items | 6.2 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.5 |
| Mainly food | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Predominantly Nonfood | 8.7 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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