Global| Oct 17 2013UK Retail Sales Continue Their Strength
Summary
UK retail sales rose by 0.5% in real terms in September. That rise left the three-month growth rate for sales at 3.1% below its 4.8% pace for 3-months but above its 2.2% pace over 12-months. Sales are up at a very strong 6.1% annual [...]
UK retail sales rose by 0.5% in real terms in September. That rise left the three-month growth rate for sales at 3.1% below its 4.8% pace for 3-months but above its 2.2% pace over 12-months. Sales are up at a very strong 6.1% annual rate in the third quarter.
UK sales show firm trends across its main components. There is neither strong evidence of acceleration nor of deceleration, but rather of growth rates fluctuating around a rather robust pace. However, three-month growth rates for nominal spending are above 12-month growth rates adding to the notion that sales are tilted more toward acceleration that toward deceleration.
The quarter-to-date calculations for growth are quite good and generally exceed even the best of the sequential growth rates in the table. Real retail sales growth is up at a 6.1% pace in the quarter and nominal growth is up at an 8.5% pace in the quarter with its component's growth rates uniformly strong in the quarter as well.
The UK continues to show strong retail growth either including or excluding autos. Auto sales in the UK have been the most consistently strong in EMU. The UK economy seems to have raised its game. The retail sales trends show no flaws and give every reason to expect that spending will continue apace.
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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