Global| Sep 09 2008UK IP Unequivocally Heads Lower
Summary
UK industrial output weakness is hardly a surprise after the sharp break posted by the UK’s July PPI. Clearly, weakness is at work and it is having an impact on prices due to its severity. Manufacturing output continues to decline [...]
UK industrial output weakness is hardly a surprise after the sharp break posted by the UK’s July PPI. Clearly, weakness is at work and it is having an impact on prices due to its severity. Manufacturing output continues to decline over 12 months; its rate of descent accelerates over ever shorter time spans. All major MFG output groups are showing declines even year-over-year. Consumer durables are off by 5.1%. Nondurables are off by 0.8%. Intermediate goods output is off by 2.4% and capital goods output is off by 1.4%. In addition each category is showing growth rates that are progressively weaker in pace from twelve months to six months to three months. The UK slowdown is quite broad-based and quite entrenched. Its progress in Q3 already points to a decline in the quarter that is well underway.
| UK IP and MFG | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
|||
| UK MFG | Jul 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q3 Date |
| MFG | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -4.1% | -4.1% | -3.0% | -1.9% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -3.8% |
| Consumer | ||||||||||
| C-Durables | -1.6% | -0.3% | -0.9% | -10.9% | -5.9% | -6.0% | -2.8% | -5.1% | -4.3% | -12.1% |
| C-Nondurables | 0.2% | -0.4% | -0.8% | -3.9% | -5.9% | -3.0% | -3.0% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -2.0% |
| Intermediate | -0.9% | 0.5% | -0.8% | -4.9% | -0.8% | -2.7% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -1.4% | -5.1% |
| Capital | 0.0% | -1.0% | -0.4% | -5.3% | -4.3% | -3.2% | -3.7% | -1.4% | -2.4% | -4.6% |
| Memo: Detail | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 1Mo% | 3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q3 Date |
| Food Drink & Tobacco |
-0.2% | -0.9% | -1.0% | -8.0% | -10.2% | -6.0% | -4.9% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -6.6% |
| Textile & Leather | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 7.8% |
| Motor Vehicles & Trailer |
2.1% | -1.0% | -3.9% | -11.2% | -12.4% | -2.1% | -2.3% | 0.4% | -1.6% | 0.2% |
| Mining and Quarry | -3.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | -10.6% | 2.2% | -7.8% | -8.5% | -9.3% | -4.5% | -18.3% |
| Electricity, Gas & H2O |
1.0% | 2.1% | -4.2% | -4.9% | -2.3% | 2.2% | -4.4% | 1.6% | -1.0% | 5.6% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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