Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Dec 24 2008

U.S. Weekly Claims For Jobless Insurance Double From Last Year's Lows

Summary

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply last week and the 30,000 increase to 586,000 pushed them to a level nearly double the lows of last year.Expectations had been for stability in claims last week at 551,000. The [...]


Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply last week and the 30,000 increase to 586,000 pushed them to a level nearly double the lows of last year.Expectations had been for stability in claims last week at 551,000. The rise in the trend level of claims is reinforced by the gain in the four-week moving average of initial claims to a cycle high of 558,000, up 61.9% y/y.

The rise in initial claims has been accompanied by a 1.4% decline in nonfarm payrolls since year-end 2007.

The Labor Department indicated that the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 13 were in Oklahoma (+1,590), Connecticut (+1,286), Illinois (+962), Maine (+707), and Utah (+402), while the largest decreases were in North Carolina (-20,526), California (-16,493), Pennsylvania (-12,438), Georgia (-12,053), and South Carolina (-8,432).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the week of December 13 fell 17,000 after a revised 44,000 decline during the prior week. But again the trend is up sharply. As a result of a huge 340,000 increase at the end of November, continuing claims were still near their highest level since 1982. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 4,319,750. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.

The insured rate of unemployment held for the third consecutive week at this cycle's high of 3.3%.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 6 were in Oregon (5.2 percent), Puerto Rico (5.2), Michigan (4.9), Idaho (4.7), Pennsylvania (4.7), Nevada (4.6), Wisconsin (4.3), South Carolina (4.2), California (4.1), Alaska (4.0), Arkansas (4.0), and New Jersey (4.0).

On Economic Conditions and Building a Recovery is the recent speech given by Dennis P. Lockhart, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and it can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s)  12/20/08 12/13/08 12/06/08 Y/Y 2007 2006  2005
Initial Claims 586 556 575 66.0% 322 313 331
Continuing Claims -- 4,370 4,387 61.7% 2,552 2,459 2,662
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief