Global| Oct 14 2004U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In August, the U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened to $54.0B, the second highest level on record. Prior months' figures were little revised. Consensus expectations had been for a somewhat shallower deficit of $51.0B. Total exports [...]
In August, the U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened to $54.0B, the second highest level on record. Prior months' figures were little revised. Consensus expectations had been for a somewhat shallower deficit of $51.0B.
Total exports grew just 0.1%, held back by a 0.1% (+15.7% y/y) decline in goods exports which followed a 4.3% pop in July. The m/m decline in goods exports spread from a 4.5% (-5.3% y/y) drop in foods & beverages to a 2.2% (+19.8%) fall in industrial supplies and a 2.0% (+3.5%) drop in the "other" category.
Capital goods exports ticked up 0.2% (+15.4% y/y) following a 5.2% jump in July while nonauto consumer goods exports rose by 4.1% (15.0% y/y), the first m/m increase following four months of decline. Auto exports also rose a strong 3.1% (22.7% y/y).
A 13.5% m/m (36.7% y/y) rise in the value of petroleum imports drove total imports 2.5% higher in August. Most of that gain reflects higher crude oil prices which are up 32.0% y/y, but the quantity of petroleum product imports did rise 5.3% (8.0% y/y). Imports of non-petroleum goods rose 0.4% (15.7% y/y) following a 0.4% decline in July.
The US trade deficit with China deepened to another record of $15.4.0B ($124.1B in 2003). Year over year, the gain in exports to China (31.8%) and imports from China (31.3% y/y) was roughly equal. The US trade deficit with Japan eased to $6.44B ($66.0B in 2003) as did the deficit with the European Union which eased to $9.6B ($27.9B in 2003).
"Free Trade: Why Are Economists and Noneconomists So Far Apart?" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
"Offshoring in the Service Sector: Economic Impact and Policy Issues" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| Foreign Trade | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $54.0B | $50.5B | $40.2B(8/03) | $496.5B | $421.7B | $362.7B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 0.1% | 3.0% | 14.2% | 4.6% | -3.1% | -6.0% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 2.5% | -1.1% | 20.7% | 8.5% | 2.1% | -5.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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