Global| Jun 14 2011U.S. Small Business Optimism Remains Subdued
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its index of small business optimism fell to 90.0 from an unrevised 91.2 in April. The latest remained the lowest level since September. Deterioration amongst the sub- [...]
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its index of small business optimism fell to 90.0 from an unrevised 91.2 in April. The latest remained the lowest level since September. Deterioration amongst the sub-series was widespread. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve remained negative while firms expecting higher real sales in six months fell to its lowest since October.
The percentage of firms with job openings now fell to its lowest level since November. However, the percentage of firms planning to add jobs turned negative for the first time since September. The percentage with few or no qualified job applicants for job openings slipped m/m but still was near its highest since late-2008.
Firms indicating that credit was harder to get rose m/m but remained near its lowest since June 2008. However, businesses planning capital expenditures during the next six months fell slightly to its lowest percentage since November. The percentage of firms raising prices remained strong near the highest level since October, 2008.
The most important problems faced by small business were poor sales (25%), taxes (20%), government requirements (15%), inflation (10%), insurance cost & availability (7%), competition from large businesses (7%), quality of labor (5%) and financial & interest rates (3%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | May | Apr | Mar | May'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100) | 90.0 | 91.2 | 91.9 | 92.2 | 89.9 | 86.7 | 89.8 |
| Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | -11 | -7 |
| Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -5 | -8 | -5 | 8 | -1 | -0 | -10 |
| Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %) | 12 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 10 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 15 | 12 | 9 | -15 | -12 | -20 | 17 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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