Global| Jun 11 2015U.S. Retail Sales Show Broad-Based Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during May strengthened 1.2% (1.0% y/y) following gains of 0.2% and 1.5%. The April and March results were revised up from little-change and 1.1%. The May increase matched [...]
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during May strengthened 1.2% (1.0% y/y) following gains of 0.2% and 1.5%. The April and March results were revised up from little-change and 1.1%. The May increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos improved 1.0% (-0.1% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% April uptick and a 1.0% March gain, revised from 0.7%. The gain outpaced expectations for a 0.8% rise. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP. Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping gained 0.7% (2.0% y/y) after a 0.1% April uptick and a 0.9% March increase, revised from no change and 0.5%, respectively.
A 2.0% jump in auto sales (5.0% y/y) bolstered the rise in overall retail spending. It followed a 0.7% increase and a 3.5% surge during the prior two months. The latest gain compares to a 7.8% improvement (6.3% y/y) in unit vehicle sales. Sales of building materials rose 2.1% (1.9% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Sales of gasoline service station jumped 3.7% (-19.4% y/y) with higher prices after a 0.6% dip.
Sales of clothing and accessories improved 1.5% (2.3% y/y) after a slight decline. Nonstore retailers also showed strength with a 1.4% rise (6.0% y/y) on top of three months of strong improvement. General merchandise store sales followed with a 0.8% rise (-0.4% y/y) which made for a 0.7% April decline. Also on the list of strength was a 0.8% rise (7.5% y/y) in sporting goods store sales. Finally, furniture & home furnishing store sales added 0.8% (4.1% y/y) to earlier monthly increases of 1.3% and 2.4%. Restaurant & drinking place sales notched just 0.1% higher but they're up 7.8% y/y. Sales of electronics & appliance stores also ticked just 0.1% higher (-3.4% y/y) following seven months of decline.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales fell 0.3% (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.4% increase. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.2% (2.3% y/y) and made up the prior month's decline.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 2.0 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Retail Less Autos | 1.2 | -0.0 | 1.1 | -1.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline Stations | 3.7 | -0.6 | 1.1 | -19.4 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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