Global| Feb 14 2012U.S. Retail Sales Rise Despite Fewer Auto Purchases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales recovered last month following weak holiday spending. Retail sales rose 0.4% (5.8% y/y) during January after a revised no-change in December, initially reported as a 0.1% uptick. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% [...]
Retail sales recovered last month following weak holiday spending. Retail sales rose 0.4% (5.8% y/y) during January after a revised no-change in December, initially reported as a 0.1% uptick. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% rise according to Action Economics. January sales were held back by an unexpected decline in auto sales. Nonauto sales rose 0.7% last month after a 0.5% December decline, revised from -0.2%. Consensus expectations had been for a gain of 0.5% in nonauto sales.
Motor vehicle sales fell a surprising 1.1% (+7.3% y/y). It was unexpected since unit motor vehicle sales for January, reported earlier this month, rose 4.6% m/m. Price discounts may have lowered the dollar value of sales. Sales at gasoline service stations rose 1.4% (7.4% y/y). When adjusted by Haver Analytics seasonal factors, gasoline prices rose 0.3% m/m (9.3% y/y). Excluding both autos and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.6% last month (4.7% y/y) after a 0.3% December decline.
Sales at food & beverage stores rose 1.3% (4.3% y/y). Building materials sales ticked up just 0.2% (8.1% y/y) but purchases of other discretionary items again were mixed. Sales of furniture, home furnishings & appliances rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) following a 1.8% December drop. General merchandise store sales rose 2.0% (5.8% y/y) after December's 0.7% decline. Sales at clothing & accessory stores were unchanged (5.3% y/y) following two months of moderate increase. Sales by nonstore retailers fell 1.1% (+4.9% y/y). Finally, restaurant sales rose 0.6% (8.2% y/y).
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 6.4 | -7.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -5.5 |
| Retail Sales | 0.4 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 6.8 | -7.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 9.8 | -13.7 |
| Retail excluding Autos | 0.7 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 6.1 | -6.3 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.4 | -2.6 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 17.4 | 17.0 | -22.2 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | -3.3 |
| Food Service | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | -0.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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